\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event overview
On April 3, the company released the production and marketing express of March 2022. In March, the company wholesale sold 104878 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 156.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.2%. 104338 new energy passenger vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 346.2% and a month on month increase of + 19.3%; Among them, 53664 pure electric passenger vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 229.2% and a month on month increase of + 24.3%; 50674 plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 615.2% and a month on month increase of + 14.4%. Meanwhile, the company’s total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries in March was about 5.353gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 149.1% and a month on month increase of + 16.0%. In addition, the company announced to stop the production of fuel vehicles since March. The automobile sector will focus on the business of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and will continue to ensure the after-sales service of existing fuel vehicles.
Analysis and judgment:
The epidemic is difficult to stop, and the growth attribute of high sales volume continues to be verified
The company’s monthly sales exceeded 100000 for the first time, with strong demand. The company has strong orders on hand and continued to speed up delivery. In March, the sales volume reached 105000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 156.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.2%, which is significantly better than that of the industry as a whole. Affected by the epidemic, the overall performance of cars in March was relatively weak. We expect the narrow passenger cars in the whole industry to be – 20% year-on-year. The company launched two terminal price adjustments this year to cope with the impact of rising battery costs and refunds, with a total increase of about 4.7% – 6.7%. We judge that the terminal price rise only has a certain fluctuation on the short-term demand, and still returns to high-speed growth in the medium term. Combined with the calculation of delivery time, we expect that the company’s current orders exceed 400000 vehicles, which is still in an upward trend, and the performance of new demand is still better than delivery.
Pure electric + hybrid two wheel drive, with an obvious growth trend. The company’s pure electric + plug-in hybrid two wheel drive, with a significant increase in sales. In Q1 this year, the company’s sales of pure electric and plug-in passenger vehicles were 143000 and 142000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 271.1% and + 857.4% respectively, and a month on month increase of + 5.6% and + 11.2% respectively. The growth trend of the company is obvious, and the product power continues to pry the demand of non licensed cities, forming an accelerated replacement for fuel vehicles. According to the data of Shanghai insurance, from January to February, the distribution of the company’s pure electricity in non first tier cities reached 84.3%, and the distribution of plug-in hybrid in non first tier cities reached 81.9%, while the proportion of 2021q4 pure electricity / plug-in hybrid was 81.4% and 80.2%.
The product power of the main models is strong, and the demand increases rapidly
The company’s main models have strong product power and remarkable achievements in brand high-end. The main models Qin and song sold 25000 and 27000 vehicles respectively in March, of which Qin DM-I and song DM + 468.4% and + 2991% respectively year-on-year. The high-end effect is remarkable, with the monthly sales center standing at more than 10000 vehicles: the sales volume of Han in March reached 12000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 19.7%; Tang sold 9625 vehicles in March, a year-on-year increase of + 409.0%. There are 11000 vehicles in the month of Q1 and 11000 vehicles in the month of Tang and Han respectively.
The sales volume of dolphin and yuan plus EV climbed rapidly and the incremental release was accelerated. As the first model of e-platform 3.0, the monthly sales of pure electric new species dolphin has increased rapidly since its listing. The sales volume reached 11000 in March, with a month on month increase of + 22.6%. The sales volume of yuan family in March was 12881, of which yuan plus was + 121.9% month on month. The new model yuan plus EV was launched on February 19, which is the first class a trendy SUV of E platform 3.0. We expect the sales volume to climb rapidly.
Comprehensive transformation of new energy technologies to define users
The company announced the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles and the comprehensive transformation of new energy. The company said that since March, the whole vehicle production of fuel vehicles will be stopped. In the future, the automobile sector will focus on the business of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and will continue to ensure the after-sales service of existing fuel vehicles. We believe that the comprehensive transformation of new energy is the only way to deep decarbonization. The company stopped selling fuel vehicles in an all-round way faster than we expected and ahead of the vast majority of vehicle enterprises, demonstrating the company’s confidence and confidence in new energy products.
The introduction of vehicle models accelerates the realization, from defining technology to defining users. Unlike most companies that start by relying on user positioning (SUV), the company gives priority to breaking through platform technology. Based on this, the strategy of building fist products has a strong late mover advantage in product positioning: 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 yuan interval Dynasty + ocean dual network support, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles; Only 10 hours after the pre-sale of Han DM-I and dm-p was opened, the order has exceeded 12000 vehicles. We expect that the new Han DM-I and dm-p are expected to increase the monthly sales center of Han family by 10000 vehicles; Frigate 07 is expected to fill the company’s vacancy in the medium-sized SUV pedigree. We believe that with the continuous output of the models of the two platforms, the company’s platform capability will quickly enter the harvest period from the verification period.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM-I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models have been significantly improved, and the inflection point of new production capacity and new models is imminent. At the same time, the company’s supply chain security capability has repeatedly been tested by industrial force majeure and successfully demonstrated strong stability, which can better cope with the inflection point of sales growth and scale effect driven performance with the continuous listing and rapid volume of new models.
Keep the profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3147.4/3774.5/428.34 billion yuan, the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be 74.6/132.6/17.93 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 2.56/4.56/6.16 yuan, the corresponding closing price of 235.96 yuan / share on April 1, 2022, and the PE will be 92 / 52 / 38 times respectively, maintaining the increase rating.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected
