Event:
On March 22 and April 1, 2022, the National Energy Administration issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system and the 14th five year plan for scientific and technological innovation in the energy field respectively, sounding the horn of the energy revolution. As the first five years of the “double carbon” journey, a large number of investment opportunities are expected to emerge in the energy field during the “14th five year plan”.
Comments:
The 14th five year plan for modern energy system clearly defines the development objectives
The plan defines some installed capacity objectives and gives new energy considerable flexible development space. According to our decomposition and calculation, during the “14th five year plan” period, the installed CAGR of pumping storage can reach 14.5%, the installed CAGR of wind power generation can reach 14.17%, the goal of coal-fired flexibility transformation is 200 million KW, the installed CAGR of gas can reach 8.45%, and the installed CAGR of nuclear power can reach 6.96%, which are the main high growth varieties.
In addition, the CAGR of flexible power supply construction is up to 10.98%, and the growth rate of non flexible power supply is only 4.99%, reflecting the system’s demand for flexibility. The demand side response target capacity reaches 52 million KW, and there will be great room for development of user side energy storage.
The 14th five year plan for scientific and technological innovation in the energy field leads technological change
The plan puts forward the main technical development direction around advanced renewable energy, new power system, safe and efficient nuclear energy, green and efficient fossil energy development and utilization, energy digitization and intelligence, etc. Among them, large-scale wind turbines, new photovoltaic cells, hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain, advanced power grid supported by DC technology, third-generation and fourth-generation nuclear power, electrochemistry and pumped storage are expected to become the main investment lines in the energy field of the 14th five year plan.
Investment advice
Key recommendations for new photovoltaic cells: Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) ;
Key recommendations for advanced power grid: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ;
Key recommendations for high efficiency nuclear power: China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ;
Actively pay attention to the large-scale fan, such as Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) ;
Actively pay attention to hydrogen energy industry, such as Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) ;
Actively pay attention to electrochemistry and pumped storage, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
Risk tips
1) the progress of energy revolution is less than expected; 2) Technological development faces bottlenecks.
