\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 688 Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) )
Scientific and technological transformation improves the comprehensive competitiveness, continuously improves the profitability, and maintains the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company’s revenue / net profit was 37.91/13.35 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.5% / + 23.3% and roe of 9.5% 6%, year-on-year + 1.02pct, and the leverage ratio at the end of the period (deducting customer margin) was 4.4 times, which was – 1% higher than that at the beginning of the year. The performance was lower than our expectation, mainly because the growth of investment business income was lower than expected. All businesses of the company grew in balance, and the net income from brokerage / investment banking / asset management / interest was + 22% / + 19% / + 27% / + 44% respectively. Considering the obvious decline of the stock market since the beginning of the year, we lowered the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 13.85/15.82 billion yuan (16.62/19.46 billion yuan before the adjustment), and increased the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 19.04 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.5 billion yuan from 2022 to 202453 / 1.74 / 2.10 yuan. We are optimistic about the two wheel drive development strategy of wealth management and institutional services under the company’s science and technology empowerment. The results of science and technology investment are gradually showing, the level of customer service is continuously improving, and it is expected to continuously enhance the comprehensive competitiveness. It is estimated that the current share price corresponds to 9.8 times of the company’s PE in 2022 and 0.5 times of pb0 9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The advantages of science and technology platform have emerged, and the market influence of wealth management business has increased
(1) in 2021, the company’s brokerage business revenue was + 22% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of the adjusted revenue, and the commission sales revenue and seat revenue were + 57% / + 26% year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s share based turnover accounted for 7.67% of the market, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.11pct, maintaining the first in the industry, with 20 million users, an increase of nearly 3 million over the beginning of the year, and Shengle fortune monthly life was 11.02 million, ranking first in the brokerage app. In 2021, the sales scale of financial products was 759.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%. At the end of the period, the number of non commodity based public offerings was 93.2 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry. Aum19.5 billion fund investment advisers at the end of the period. The company continued to increase investment in science and technology, improve customer experience and obtain traffic to achieve “self guiding flow”. In 2021, the R & D investment was + 134%, and the R & D rate was 4.06%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.09pct. (2) At the end of 2021, the company’s two financing scale was 116.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, with a market share of 6.83%, which was -0.09 PCT compared with the beginning of the year, of which the balance of securities lending was 24.7 billion yuan, with a market share of 20.56%, which was + 2.01 PCT compared with the beginning of the year. The company’s securities lending platform released 3.0 to further improve transaction efficiency and promote the growth of the scale of two financing businesses.
Investment banking business has driven the development of the whole business chain, and the return on proprietary investment has declined
(1) in 2021, the net income of investment banking business was + 19% year-on-year, and the company’s IPO and bond underwriting scale were + 52% / + 40% year-on-year respectively. The high growth of scale driven the growth of investment banking business income. As the entrance of high-quality asset flow, investment banks promote the development of the whole business chain. In 2021, Huatai’s innovative net profit was 730 million, a year-on-year increase of + 108%, mainly due to the investment income brought by the follow-up investment of the science and innovation board. (2) In 2021, the company’s return on investment in proprietary financial products was + 11% year-on-year, and the return on proprietary investment was 3.39%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.28pct. The scale of financial investment assets was 371.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
