Sichuan finance view
Thermal power out of the dark moment, the fundamentals ushered in an inflection point. Recently, electric power enterprises have disclosed annual reports one after another. In Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) 2021, the operating revenue reached 204605 billion yuan, an increase of 20.75% year-on-year; The net profit loss attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 10.264 billion yuan Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) 2021 achieved an operating revenue of 104422 billion yuan, an increase of 12.27% year-on-year; The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 211.8%. The good demand for electricity has driven the steady growth of the revenue of power enterprises. However, in 2021, the imbalance between coal supply and demand and the sharp rise in coal prices led to significant losses for thermal power enterprises. With the introduction of the policy of stabilizing price and ensuring supply by the national development and Reform Commission, the coal price has been effectively controlled. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the price formation mechanism of coal market. The notice defines the reasonable range of coal price. The tax included price of 5500 kcal of underground coal in Qinhuangdao port is between 570770 yuan per ton. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission has also held several meetings to emphasize the guarantee of coal supply and guide the price to return to a reasonable range. The profit restoration expectation of thermal power enterprises is expected to be further enhanced.
New energy power generation has entered a stage of rapid expansion. The development power of wind power photovoltaic is still strong. According to the national electric power industry data from January to February released by the national energy administration, from January to February this year, the newly installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in China reached 10.86 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 234%; The installed capacity of wind power increased by 5.73 million KW, an increase of 61% year-on-year. The installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic maintains a rapid growth. In the future, with the promotion of distributed photovoltaic and offshore wind power projects, there are still deterministic growth expectations for new energy power generation projects. The relevant wind power photovoltaic equipment industry is expected to usher in a new profit growth point. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Energy Administration jointly issued the notice on carrying out self inspection of subsidies for renewable energy power generation. The long-standing problem of arrears of new energy subsidies is expected to be solved at one time. The one-time payment of arrears subsidies can effectively solve the problem of insufficient cash flow of enterprises, improve financial indicators and provide new impetus for the development of renewable energy.
The transformation of thermal power and the construction of pumped storage power stations will further enhance the consumption capacity of the power grid. Wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation are affected by weather and climate, with the characteristics of fluctuation and intermittence, which increases the load and instability of the power system. Therefore, thermal power will remain the main power supply in China for a period of time in the future. The transformation and upgrading of coal-fired power has definite expectations, and accelerate the transformation of coal-fired power from main power supply to basic guarantee and system regulation power supply. In terms of pumped storage, under relevant planning, the total scale of pumped storage will be more than 62 million KW by 2025; By 2030, the total scale of production will be about 120 million KW. The relevant statement of “strengthening the construction of pumped storage power stations” has also been added to the government work report. With the promotion of thermal power transformation and energy storage construction, the problem of grid connection and consumption of new energy will be effectively solved.
We believe that under the regulation of the policy, the subsequent coal prices tend to be stable. The increase of industrial electricity price in many places and the steady progress of the reform of power market-oriented trading are expected to bring profit restoration to the traditional thermal power business. In the context of the country’s vigorous development of wind power, power enterprises actively promoting the transformation of new energy are expected to increase their profits. In addition, in the case of unstable wind and solar power generation, the role of coal-fired power is prominent, and enterprises with regulated and guaranteed power supply are more important in the transformation of green energy
Advantages. The development of pumped storage has accelerated and contributed to the consumption of new energy. Recently, the State Grid Zhejiang Taishun and Jiangxi Fengxin pumped storage power station projects started construction at the same time, with an installed capacity of 1.2 million KW and a total investment of 14.773 billion yuan. The construction of pumped storage power station industry has ushered in accelerated development, and the relevant power generation equipment industry is expected to benefit.
Market performance in the first quarter
In the first quarter, the market correction was large, with the power industry index falling 15.20%, the Shanghai stock index falling 10.65% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index falling 14.53%. Among the sub sectors, the thermal power index fell 18.12%, the hydropower index fell 11.88%, the photovoltaic power index fell 18.52% and the wind power index fell 19.08%.
Industry dynamics
The Energy Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the power development plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the 14th five year plan. The document points out that we will comprehensively promote the construction of smart grid. We will promote the intelligent construction of power grid equipment, promote the application of new technologies such as intelligent operation, intelligent monitoring and intelligent inspection, strengthen the tackling of key core technologies and the demonstration application of the first set of major technical equipment, accelerate the construction of intelligent substations, and achieve a coverage rate of more than 25% for 110 kV and 220 kV intelligent substations in 2025. (Polaris power grid)
Company announcement
Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ( Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ): Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) disclosed the annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.15%; The basic earnings per share is 0.7678 yuan.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation fluctuates beyond expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the construction of new energy is less than expected.
