Review of the secondary market: this week (March 28-April 1, 2022), the home appliance industry rose by 3.93%. Among the subdivided and related sectors of home appliances, the white electricity and kitchen electricity sectors rebounded significantly, rising by 5.03% and 4.46% respectively, higher than the overall growth level of the home appliance industry; In the black electricity sector, in addition to showing a decline of 2.51% in the zero group, both black electricity and panel sectors rose by more than 1 percentage point; The small household appliance sector rose slightly by 1.17%, narrowed compared with the previous week. In terms of individual stocks, among the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 37 rose, 3 were flat and 44 fell.
Retail market performance: in 2022w13 (3.21-3.27), the sales of China's double end market of all kinds of household appliances were - 18.81% (online) and - 29.45% (offline) respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate of double end market fell for two consecutive weeks. From the perspective of focusing on the sales of household appliances, the overall growth rate of household appliances sales of all categories shows a downward trend, and the average price increase or continues to rise due to the continuous upward impact of raw material prices. Among them, the average price in the offline market has increased significantly, the average price in the offline market of refrigerator has increased by 1184 yuan / set year-on-year, and the average price of dishwasher and integrated stove has also increased by more than 800 yuan / set.
Data tracking of raw materials and marine real estate: LME copper and aluminum prices remained high and volatile this week. As of the closing on March 31, LME copper and aluminum settlement prices were US $10337 / ton and US $3503 / ton respectively; The price of rebar continued to rise, and the settlement price exceeded 5000 yuan / ton. As of the closing on March 31, the settlement price of shift rebar was reported as 5115 yuan / ton; The price index of plastics and the price of galvanized sheet further increased slightly, and the price of cold-rolled sheet remained basically stable; The price of large-size LCD panel continued to decline slowly. In March, the price of 43 inch panel was USD 68 / piece, the same as that of the previous month. The price of 50 / 55 / 65 inch panel was USD 84 / 107 / 176 / piece, down 1 / 2 / 3 USD / piece compared with the previous value; In terms of shipping, CCFI of China's major foreign routes, except for the US West and east-west Africa routes, which increased slightly by 1% - 2% month on month, CCFI of other routes decreased month on month. Among them, CCFI of Australia New Zealand routes decreased by nearly 3% month on month, with a relatively significant decline. In the real estate market, commercial housing transactions in all tier cities showed an upward trend, with significant growth in tier two cities.
Opinions and investment suggestions: according to statistics, the retail sales of China's home appliance market in 2021 was 760.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Although there was a slight increase, it still fell by more than 7 percentage points compared with 2019 before the epidemic. In the context of the end of the real estate cycle, the downturn in demand caused by the weakening of consumers' will may be the main factor restricting the growth of China's home appliance market. Some household electrical appliances that entered the mature stage earlier are limited by their durable goods attributes. After the household ownership enters the bottleneck, the upgrading of consumers is slow, which hinders their market increment and is difficult to further improve.
At this stage, China's home appliance market is undergoing a transformation period from "channel is king" to "product is king". Consumers' awareness is no longer the convenience of single picture purchase channels, but pay more attention to the personalization and quality of products and the satisfaction of their vital needs, such as integrated home appliances, health home appliances and other emerging categories with high growth rate in the industry, Their rapid growth is not only due to the continuous increment brought by market vacancy, but also determined by the fact that their products can fully meet the diversified needs of users in different scenarios and the brand's ultimate pursuit of user experience. Therefore, in the era of generous profits, home appliance enterprises need to actively promote the continuous optimization of product structure and the diversification and scenario expansion of categories on the premise of solving the needs of users, so as to comply with the market trend and enjoy the long-term growth dividend of the industry.
Therefore, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . SZ), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) . SH), Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . SZ), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) ( Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . SH) and optional consumer appliances enterprises with continuous optimization of product structure and steady increase of medium and high-end market share; Entering the disclosure period of the annual report, it is suggested to pay attention to the related subjects of high revenue and profit growth.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
