Main points
The sales of top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline. From January to March, Top100 real estate enterprises realized a trading amount of 1.44 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 46.96%; The trading area was 96.547 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%; The total sales volume reached 1.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.07%, and the total sales area reached 107 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 49.09%. In a single month in March, Top100 real estate enterprises realized a trading amount of 511.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.68% and a month on month increase of 27.38%; The trading area was 33.293 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 56.49% and a month on month increase of 14.35%; The full caliber sales amount was 579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.60% and a month on month increase of 25.03%; The full caliber sales area was 36.366 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57.16% and a month on month increase of 12.13%.
The sales decline of top real estate enterprises is smaller than that of other echelon real estate enterprises. From January to March, the total sales amount of top 5 real estate enterprises fell by 41.24% year-on-year, lower than that of top 10 (- 41.49%), top 20 (- 44.60%) and top 50 (- 47.70%). Except that the sales amount of top 10 real estate enterprises decreased slightly compared with the previous month, the sales amount of other echelon real estate enterprises decreased somewhat compared with the previous month. The full caliber sales area of top 5 real estate enterprises decreased by 43.34% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year decline was lower than that of top 10 (- 45.14%), top 20 (- 45.95%) and top 50 (- 48.11%). The decline of sales area of all echelons of real estate enterprises increased compared with the previous month.
The total trading amount of Renheng land increased by 23.35% year-on-year, and the total year-on-year decline among the top 30 real estate enterprises was Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 20.01%), China Resources Land (- 21.86%) and construction and development real estate (- 24.94%); The cumulative decline of trading area is relatively small year-on-year, which are Greentown China (- 8.32%), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 15.36%) and Zhongjun group (- 21.09%); The cumulative year-on-year decline of full caliber sales amount is relatively small, which are respectively Renheng land (- 7.78%), Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 15.77%) and Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 17.39%); The accumulated amount of equity decreased slightly year-on-year, namely Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 15.78%), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 19.42%) and Greentown China (- 29.87%); The cumulative year-on-year decline of full caliber sales area is relatively small, which are Greentown China (- 5.07%), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 15.06%) and Zhongjun group (- 25.82%).
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved, the market confidence needs to be repaired, the Matthew effect of capital is prominent, and the enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) the leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in the first and second tier cities, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH), Greentown China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; The sales of commercial houses were lower than expected.
