Investment advice
Industry strategy: the electrification and intellectualization of automobiles have brought opportunities for capacity expansion to the Automotive PCB market. At the same time, the reshaping of supply relations and pattern reconstruction have brought opportunities for mainland PCB manufacturers to overtake on curves. In this context, we believe that there are two main ways to enjoy the growth dividend of the industry and break the inherent pattern. One is to bind the emerging leading main engine factory, and the other is to focus on the layout of three power system and domain control system. Mainland PCB manufacturers have made efforts to varying degrees in the above two ways, and actively facing the opportunity of change will open up the space for growth.
Recommended combination: we suggest to pay attention to Olympic Circuit Technology Co.Ltd(603920) (high proportion of automobiles, binding with the leading OEMs of global new energy vehicles), Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou)Co.Ltd(300476) (supplying the leading OEMs of global new energy vehicles), Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) (high proportion of automobiles, binding with China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery manufacturers, supplying soft boards, actively cooperating with the R & D of global Tier1 leading enterprises), Bomin Electronics Co.Ltd(603936) (cooperating with the fixed-point R & D of China's new forces of car making) Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) (automobile accounts for a relatively high proportion, which is developed in cooperation with the world's leading OEMs of new energy vehicles).
Industry perspective
With the reform of automobile industry chain, PCB welcomes the opportunity of capacity expansion. The design form of automobile is changing rapidly. In summary, the change direction mainly includes electrification and intellectualization. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 8%, and major manufacturers are increasing the research and application of intelligent software and hardware solutions. The whole automobile industry chain is facing upgrading and transformation. In this context, the proportion of electronic devices in automobile cost will increase. It is estimated that the proportion of automobile electronic cost will be close to 50% by 2030, and the application of PCB as the mother of Electronics will also increase significantly. According to CPCA, the global PCB output value will reach 9.5 billion US dollars in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2020 to 2025 will reach 7.8%.
The estimated value of single vehicle is 1490 ~ 1640 yuan, and the value increment of Sandian and domain control is obvious. Taking the PCB scheme of Tesla Model 3 as an example, it is estimated that the PCB value of a single car will reach 1490 ~ 1640 yuan, which is significantly higher than that of a traditional car of 500 ~ 600 yuan. In terms of splitting, the three electricity system mainly uses 6 sets of PCB boards (4-8-layer through-hole boards, some with thick copper design), with a total consumption of 0.713 square meters and a corresponding value of 640690 yuan, accounting for 43% of the value of the whole vehicle (three electricity hard board / whole vehicle hard board = 28%, three electricity soft board / whole vehicle soft board = 74%); The domain control system mainly uses six sets of PCB boards (three of which use HDI process). The total consumption reaches 0.28 square meters, and the corresponding value reaches 550 ~ 600 yuan, accounting for 37% of the value of the whole vehicle (domain control hard board / whole vehicle hard board = 54%, no consumption of soft board). It can be seen that the value of hard board should pay attention to three electricity and domain control, and the value of soft board should pay attention to three electricity.
Where are incremental opportunities going? Mainland manufacturers welcome the opportunity to overtake on curves. The transformation of electric and intelligent vehicles will reshape the supply relationship (the main engine factory will get more leading power in the industrial chain) and change the industrial chain pattern (the industrial value will be transferred from traditional components to three electricity system and domain control software and hardware, and the emergence of new markets will bring opportunities for reconstruction of the supply pattern). These changes will bring opportunities for mainland manufacturers who do not have an advantage in the current automobile PCB competition: 1) the development of new energy vehicles makes it possible for manufacturers such as Tesla, lucid Emerging OEMs such as ideal, Weilai and Xiaopeng, which are purely new energy vehicles, have stepped onto the historical stage, and PCB suppliers can usher in the opportunity to stand on the same starting line and be re selected. At the same time, OEMs with independent brands in the mainland are gradually emerging in the global competition, which is expected to bring domestic PCBs into the mainstream industrial chain; 2) Electrification and intellectualization have brought new value links such as three electricity system and domain controller. Meanwhile, mainland parts manufacturers have become strong competitors in these links ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) etc. in three electricity system and Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) etc. in domain controller), which makes mainland local PCB manufacturers more likely to be introduced into the mainstream supply chain of automobile PCB at this stage when parts manufacturers still maintain a certain degree of component dominance.
Risk tips
The penetration of new energy vehicles is less than expected; The promotion of automobile intellectualization is less than expected; Automobile demand is less than expected; Increased competition resulted in participants' profits falling short of expectations.
