Abstract
Float glass finished accumulating, and the short-term unit profit hit the bottom
The average price of float glass in China this week decreased by 2.58% month on month compared with last week. On the whole, the new orders are still insufficient, and the processing plants just need to replenish. The manufacturer's inventory was 56.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 210000 weight boxes compared with last week, and the inventory changed from increase to decrease. The production capacity in the week was 172525t / D, unchanged month on month. The cost side fuel price has not changed much this week, soda ash has increased, the price of the original film continues to decrease due to the weak demand, the price decline has narrowed, and the decline of float glass profit has slowed down and is close to the bottom of the stage. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and the demand for Q2 is expected to reach a small peak.
The demand for photovoltaic glass continued to pick up, and the inventory continued to decline during the week
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 20 and 26 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 19.10 days, down 8.70% from last week. Recently, due to the poor transportation in some regions, the transaction focus of heavy alkali market has shifted upward. Silicon materials continued to rise, the price remained high, the operation of component manufacturers was basically stable, terminal power stations successively accepted new prices, and the trading volume increased. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 47810 tons, an increase of 6.69% month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we think the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. The recent events in the photovoltaic industry are mainly catalyzed by the increase in the installed capacity expectation of the European Photovoltaic Association. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the EU will be 420gw in 2030. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous increase in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin), and from the perspective of dilemma reversal [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The stock price of the float leader has been significantly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under the equilibrium state and the additional growth brought by the new business, we believe that the current float leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ], [Xinyi Glass] (both have a certain capacity of building energy-saving glass); From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
