The decline of policy subsidies has led to a strong demand for domestic replacement of wind power bearings: at present, Lufeng has achieved parity on the Internet, and will no longer enjoy subsidies from 2021, while the subsidy intensity of Haifeng is also gradually reduced. From the perspective of the national subsidy policy for the wind power industry, the state promoted the rapid development of the wind power industry through the subsidy policy in the early stage, and gradually reduced the amount of subsidy with the progress of industry technology. We believe that in the future, both wind farm owners and complete machine manufacturers will have higher requirements for cost control, and the demand of host manufacturers for selecting Chinese parts to reduce costs is likely to be very strong.
The increase of wind power bidding volume is expected to drive the continuous expansion of the market space of wind power bearings: according to the published planning documents, the planned installed capacity of new wind power in all provinces during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 187.51gw. According to Zhou Jianping's analysis, prediction and Countermeasures of hydropower development situation during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installed capacity of new wind power in the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to reach 280300gw, more than twice that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The rapid growth of wind power is expected to drive the continuous expansion of upstream parts market space.
Main shaft bearing: the main shaft bearing is the bearing with the most expensive unit price and the highest technical barrier among wind turbines. With the increase of fan power, the unit price of main shaft bearing will rise. Low power models have been localized, while only a few manufacturers ( Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , bearing pads) of high-power models can realize mass supply, so there is a large space for domestic substitution. At present, China's leading manufacturers have obvious advantages and are expected to produce China's leading enterprises. According to our calculation, the market space of spindle bearings in China will be 3.805 billion yuan in 2021 and 5.643 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.36%.
Yaw pitch bearing: the technical content of yaw pitch bearing is lower than that of spindle bearing, and the gross profit margin is half of that of spindle bearing. The technology of Chinese manufacturers has been relatively mature and a full range of localization has been realized. Tianma, Wazhou, Luozhou, Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Jingye and other manufacturers currently occupy the leading position in the Chinese market. Under the background of large-scale fan, independent pitch bearing is expected to become a new trend, increasing the value of pitch bearing. According to our calculation, the market space of yaw pitch bearing in China is 5.617 billion yuan in 2021, 8.87 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR is 12.10%
Gearbox bearing and generator bearing: the main engine factory of wind turbine usually purchases the whole gearbox and generator instead of the internal bearing. Gearbox bearings have high technical content and basically rely on imports. Only a few bearing manufacturers such as bearing bush and Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) are in the initial stage in China. According to the calculation, the market space of gearbox bearings in China will be 2.475 billion yuan in 2021 and 3.342 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.63%. The low-power products of generator bearings have been made in China, and the high-power products basically rely on imports. The market space of generator bearing is small, less than 1 billion yuan.
Through the analysis and research in the field of wind power bearings, we have combed the enterprises that benefit from the high landscape of wind power, which is mainly divided into three main lines:
① there is a large domestic substitution space for high-power spindle bearings. At present, the head manufacturers have rapid technological progress and radical capacity expansion. They have greater advantages over other Chinese manufacturers in technology, experience and scale. It is expected to be a Chinese leading enterprise in the next 2-3 years. It is recommended to pay attention to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) .
② independent pitch bearing is the development trend under the background of large-scale fan in the future. It mainly uses three row cylindrical roller bearings, which is different from the traditional double volleyball bearing. At present, only Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Chengdu Tianma and a few other manufacturers are producing independent pitch bearings. The gross profit margin of pitch bearings is expected to increase in the next 1-2 years, and orders are expected to be large. It is suggested to pay attention to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) .
③ at present, the bearings of wind power gearbox basically depend on imports, and there is a lot of room for domestic substitution. The wind turbine main engine factory will purchase a certain amount of gearbox bearings and send them to the gearbox manufacturer for assembly to reduce the procurement cost. At present, Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) is establishing a gearbox bearing production line and takes the lead in entering the gearbox bearing industry. After completion, it will get a certain number of orders. It is recommended to pay attention to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) .
Risk warning: the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected, the progress of large-scale wind power is less than expected, the price competition is too fierce, and the calculation of market space is subjective, which may deviate from the actual value
