Covid-19 epidemic has lasted for more than two years, and covid-19 virus and its variants may exist for a long time. The harm of Omicron can not be ignored. The adjustment of epidemic prevention in China is gradual according to the characteristics of the epidemic, and the certainty of vaccine drug demand continues to increase.
Key points supporting rating
Covid-19 virus may exist for a long time, and vaccines and drugs are the main epidemic prevention weapons. As some countries in Europe and the United States successively announced to stop epidemic prevention restrictions, covid-19 virus has been difficult to be eliminated worldwide, and covid-19 virus will probably exist for a long time. China has implemented “dynamic clearing” for a long time. In the face of evolving infectious mutants, China’s epidemic prevention has been under heavy pressure for a long time. The importance of vaccines and drugs is highlighted.
The transformation of prevention and control is gradual, and the harm of Omicron cannot be underestimated. The number of severe cases and deaths in countries that have experienced Omicron epidemic in this round of outbreak is no less than that in delta period. In the long run, accelerating the research and development of vaccines and drugs, improving the vaccination rate and expanding medical facilities can avoid the possible run on medical resources and reduce the possible risk of death. At present, continuing the “dynamic reset” can buy more time for the above preparations.
Strengthen the needle market, and the effect of heterologous sequential immunization is better. China’s vaccination rate is close to 50%, and there is still room for improvement. Many studies have shown that strengthening acupuncture can effectively reduce the infection rate, severe disease rate and mortality. At the same time, heterologous sequence showed better protective effect in the experiment.
The demand for domestic covid-19 drugs is highly uncertain. Pfizer paxlovid has limited production capacity, high price and “neck sticking” risk. However, China has a large population base and needs sufficient and reliable covid-19 drug reserves. Therefore, the demand for self-controlled domestic covid-19 drugs is highly deterministic.
Key recommendation
Covid-19 vaccine focuses on Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , which may be newly approved; Covid-19 small molecule medicine focuses on Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , which is the leading progress in China.
Main risks of rating
Risk of epidemic change, change of national health policy, risk of review and approval, less than expected R & D progress, less than expected sales, and risk of international relations.
