\u3000\u30003 China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) 00073)
3 Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) 021 has a bright performance and continues to be optimistic about the company's market advantages
In 2021, the revenue was 8.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 159.41%; Deduct 824 million yuan of non parent net profit, a year-on-year increase of + 238.28%; The gross profit margin of main business was 17.68%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.08pct. In 2021q4, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 310 million yuan, an increase of 38.88% over Q3. In 2021, the company strengthened cooperation with leading enterprises such as Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) to consolidate its leading position and explore overseas first-line car enterprise customers, with large demand and strong certainty. We raised the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 1.545 (+ 0.99) / 2.009 (+ 1.50) / 2.742 billion yuan, EPS is 3.05/3.97/5.41 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 24.7/19.0/13.9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Strengthen China's international "double cycle" integration pattern and accelerate production expansion to support business expansion
In 2021, the company achieved product sales of 47000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 97%. It is expected that the shipment volume will reach 9 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 tons in 2022, with sufficient orders and rising production and sales. (1) The company has comprehensively arranged the "double cycle" in China and abroad: it has established solid cooperative relations with global first-line power battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises such as SK, LG chemistry, AESC and northwolt in the world; The Chinese market cooperates closely with AVIC lithium battery and other core battery manufacturers; (2) Steadily expand production: Changzhou phase II and Jiangsu phase IV projects have been put into construction, and the European industrial base project has been officially launched, becoming China's first positive material enterprise to enter the local construction capacity in Europe; (3) Advance can be attacked and retreat can be defended: after a series of production expansion is completed, the capacity scale will increase significantly. When the self owned capacity is insufficient, the company can meet the order demand through outsourcing capacity, maintain balanced production and further improve the global market share.
Industrial chain extension resists cost pressure, and cutting-edge technologies support profit sustainability
The price of raw materials fluctuates in 2022, but we don't think the profitability of the company will be affected.
(1) the company has strategic cooperation with upstream suppliers, sign competitive long purchase orders, and jointly develop upstream resource projects with strategic suppliers to ensure long-term cost competitive supply channels. Moreover, the procurement is relatively scattered, does not rely on a single supplier, and has strong anti risk ability.
(2) technically, the performance index of ultra-high nickel product ni98 has been highly recognized by overseas customers; Accelerate the research and development of solid-state lithium battery technology, have completed product development, and have established a strategic cooperative relationship with leading enterprises, realizing market-oriented application and batch supply; Focus on lithium manganese iron phosphate and seize the commanding height of the next generation battery material technology.
Risk tip: the development of thin line technology stagnates, the cost decreases slowly, and the demand for downstream silicon wafers is less than expected
