Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
The performance flexibility is released in 2021, and Q1 in 2022 is much higher than expected, which is optimistic about the transformation and growth potential
The company released its 2021 annual report, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.26 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 128.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 16.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 148.1%. The high performance increase in 2021 was mainly due to the year-on-year rise in the market prices of chemical products such as coal and acetic acid, which reflected the performance flexibility of the company. At the same time, the company issued a pre increase announcement of Q1 performance in 2022. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 6.6 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 4.349 billion yuan, or 193.2%. Benefiting from the continuous rise of international energy prices, China’s demand remains strong, and the volume and price of its main products rise simultaneously, fully releasing the flexibility of performance. We raised the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 25.14/271.9/292.8 (the previous value is 20.22 / 206.4 / -) billion in 20222024, with a year-on-year increase of 52.9% / 8.2% / 7.7%; EPS is 5.08/5.49/5.92 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, and PE is 7.5/6.9/6.4 times. As China’s leading coal enterprise, the company takes the lead in formulating long-term development plans, clarifying the transformation direction of new energy and new materials, and optimistic about the future growth potential. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The coal sector complements the volume with price & the volume and price of the coal chemical sector rise together, and the annual performance in 2021 is fully released
Coal sector: due to the impact of security inspection, environmental protection and the decline of trade coal volume, the production / sales of commercial coal in 2021 was 105 / 106 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% / 28.4%. In 2021, the spot price of QinGang thermal coal was + 78.5% year-on-year, and that of Australia NEWC was + 130% year-on-year, which was the main driving force for the high growth of annual performance. Chinese coal: the average price / cost of commercial coal is 766 / 335 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 79.2% / 81.8%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 431 yuan / ton, up 77.3% year-on-year. Overseas coal: the average price / cost of commercial coal is 657 / 397 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 61.7% / 39.8%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 260 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 112.6%. Coal chemical industry sector: gross profit of 6.9 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 457.9%; The gross profit margin was 32%, year-on-year + 174.1%. Methanol: the output was 2.503 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 37.5%; The selling price / cost is 1947 / 1532 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.9% / 40%. Acetic acid: the sales volume was 757000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.26%; The average selling price / cost was 5647.3/2554.8 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 152.8% / 42.5%. Crude liquid wax: sales volume 448000 tons, year-on-year + 8.2%; The average selling price / cost is 4200 / 2600 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 18.3% / 16.3%. Ethylene glycol: the new output is 292000 tons.
Q1 performance in 2022 greatly exceeded expectations, and businesses at home and abroad made concerted efforts
The company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.6 billion yuan in the first quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 6.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 195.8%. Affected by the strong demand in China and the continuous rise of energy prices in the international market, the volume and price of main products rose at the same time, and the performance of Q1 was much higher than expected.
The transformation of traditional energy has started a new journey, and high dividends are still attractive
In December 2021, the company issued the development strategy outline, which determined the five industrial development directions of smart mining, high-end chemical new materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and smart logistics, striving to reach 300 million tons of coal in 5-10 years and expand the mineral fields of molybdenum, gold, copper, iron and potassium; The output of chemicals is more than 20 million tons, and new materials and high-end chemicals account for more than 70%; The installed capacity of new energy has reached more than 10 million KW, and the hydrogen production capacity has exceeded 100000 tons. Dividends: the company plans to pay a dividend of 1.6 yuan / share (including tax) and a special dividend of 0.4 yuan / share (including tax). Based on the latest closing price, the dividend rate of a / H shares is 5.26% / 9.97%. The high dividend is very attractive and the long-term investment value of the leader is prominent.
Risk tip: the economic recovery was less than expected, the coal price fell more than expected, and the transformation progress was slower than expected
