\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
The performance is improving steadily, and the new project can be put into operation in the future. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 64.96 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 4.59 billion yuan, an increase of 44.7% year-on-year. In 2021, coal and coke prices were at a high level, and the annual performance increased steadily. The net operating cash flow generated in 2021 was 11.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.7%. It is estimated that the supply and demand of double coke in 2022 may continue to be tight. We raised the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 6.34/68.2/70.5 (the previous value is 6.32 / 66.4 / -) billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5% / 7.6% / 3.4%; EPS is 2.55/2.75/2.84 (the previous value is 2.55 / 2.68 / -) yuan, corresponding to 5.9 / 5.5 / 5.3 times of the current share price PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Coal business: the rise in prices has led to a significant increase in profits, and the annual performance has improved steadily
The production volume and price of Xinhu increased simultaneously. In 2021, the production / sales of commercial coal reached 22.581976 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% / 15.9%. In September 2021, Xinhu coal mine with an annual capacity of 3 million tons was put into operation, and the output of commercial coal in Q4 was 6.259 million tons, an increase of 23.7% month on month. Affected by the increase in the price of purchased coal and the increase in employee compensation, the operating cost of Q4 increased, the quantity of purchased commercial coal decreased, and the sales volume of Q4 coal was 4.939 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% month on month; The cost per ton of coal was 581.8 yuan, an increase of 58.7% month on month. The overall profit of the sector was boosted by the coal price. The average selling price / cost of commercial coal in the whole year was 805.8/476.5 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.2% / 21.5%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 329.3 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. Among them, the price of Q4 coking coal climbed to a record high, and the gross profit per ton of coal rose sharply. The average price / cost of Q4 commercial coal was 999.1/581.8 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 31.8% / 27.1%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 417.4 yuan, an increase of 38.9% month on month.
Coal chemical industry business: the volume of chemical industry decreases and prices increase, and the release of new production capacity is expected to bring vitality
The volume of chemical industry decreased and the price increased. Affected by the sharp rise of coking coal, the output of chemicals has declined. The annual coke production / sales volume was 4096 / 4076000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% / 1.3%; Methanol production / sales volume was 343 / 344000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% / 10.3%. Driven by the cost, the price of chemical products rose, and the price per ton of coke (excluding tax) was 2645 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. The increase of coke price lagged behind that of coking coal; The average price of methanol (excluding tax) was 2259.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 43.5% year-on-year. In terms of new projects, the 500000 ton coke oven gas to methanol project has entered trial production. It is expected to be officially put into operation in June 2022, and the capacity release is expected to inject vitality.
The coal sand chemical project is advancing in an orderly manner, and the production of Xinhu mine is expected to rise both in volume and price
Coking coal fundamentals continue to be tight. On the demand side, it is expected that the security inspection and environmental protection will be strengthened in 2022, and there will be no increase in China’s coking coal supply. In addition, the foreign double coke price is high, the import is reduced, and the overall supply is tight; On the demand side, due to China’s expectation of “steady growth”, the demand driven by infrastructure real estate is rising, and the return of foreign orders, the overall demand is improving, and the price of dual coke is expected to continue to operate at a high level. The progress of new projects will be promoted and the increment will be stable in the future. The undeveloped capacity of Xinhu coal mine has been released one after another, which is expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price. In addition, 8 million tons of high calorific value power coal in taohutu mine, 500000 tons of coke oven gas to methanol project, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of methanol to ethanol project, sand and gravel business expansion and production increase and other incremental projects have been promoted in an orderly manner, and there is still something to see in the later growth.
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected, the coal price falls more than expected, and the progress of new production capacity lags behind expectations
