\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
The company issued the 2021 annual report on the impact of impairment provision, and achieved an operating revenue Q4 profit of 216142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.255 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 58%. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 70.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 602 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 27% and a month on month increase of – 55%, mainly due to the provision of about 900 million asset impairment and credit impairment.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased rapidly, and the electronic business grew steadily
The company’s new energy vehicles are in a strong cycle of products and technology. The sales volume of 21h2 company is 493000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 84%; The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 444000, a year-on-year increase of + 265%. 21q4 company sold 287000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 82% and a month on month increase of + 39%; The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 263000, with a year-on-year increase of + 250% and a month on month increase of + 46%. 21q4’s market share of new energy passenger vehicles continued to rise slightly to 20.3%, of which Bev passenger vehicles accounted for 12.9% and PHEV passenger vehicles accounted for 53.7%. 21h2 Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics achieved an operating revenue of 44.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7%; Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 23.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7% and a month on month increase of + 8%.
The epidemic situation and rising raw material prices affect profitability
Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics, affected by the epidemic and chip shortage, the downstream demand is weakened and the capacity utilization is low, resulting in pressure on profitability. At the same time, the company increased R & D investment, and the management cost increased rapidly. 21h2 gross profit margin 6.7%, mom -0.2pct; The net interest rate was 1.5% month on month (- 2.2pct). Among them, the gross profit margin of 21q4 was 6.2%, month on month -1pct; The net profit was 0.7% month on month (- 1.7pct). After deducting Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics, including automobiles, secondary batteries and photovoltaic sectors, the net profit of 21h2 was 2.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 220% and a month on month increase of + 1163%; The net interest rate is about 2.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pct and a month on month increase of + 2.2pct. We expect that the main reasons are 1) the decline of financial expenses; 2) Expansion of external supply scale and enhancement of profitability of secondary battery and photovoltaic business. According to the segment financial data, 21h2 we expect that the high growth of automobile sales will drive the depreciation and amortization of single vehicle to decrease by 5000 yuan to 8000 yuan month on month. Affected by the rising price of raw materials and other factors, we expect the gross profit and net profit of single vehicle to decrease by about 7000 yuan and 5000 yuan respectively.
Profitability is expected to improve in 22 years
The company relies on E3 0 and DM-I technology accelerate the iteration of models, and the sales volume is in a period of rapid growth. The annual sales volume in 22 years is expected to exceed 1.5 million. Affected by the rising price of raw materials, the company’s short-term profitability is under pressure. We expect that with the expansion of automobile sales and the return of raw material prices to normal, the profit inflection point is expected to come. In February 22 years ago, the company raised the price of bicycles twice, and the profit of complete vehicles is expected to improve. At the same time, relying on the profound accumulation of battery technology, the company speeds up the construction of battery capacity, and is expected to realize the large-scale external supply of power batteries and energy storage batteries in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We are optimistic about the future development of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 10 billion yuan, 15.7 billion yuan and 22.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 230%, + 57% and + 42%, and the corresponding PE will be 71, 45 and 32 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Rising raw material prices and fluctuation of RMB exchange rate
