\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 039 Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) )
Core view
The performance exceeded expectations, the gross profit margin increased and the management fee rate decreased. The 21-year income is 85.05 billion, yoy + 39.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.58 billion, yoy + 84.5%. Among them, the income of 21q4 is 33.03 billion, yoy + 36.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent is 2.11 billion, yoy + 61.7%. The gross profit margin of 21 years is 16.1%, yoy + 1.3pct, which is mainly contributed by the improvement of the gross profit margin of the project; The rate of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses is 0.03 / 1.3 / 2.8 / 3.4%, yoy + 0.0 / – 0.4 / – 1.0 / + 0.6pct. The year-on-year decrease in the management fee rate is due to the management fee paid by CRCC to the original shareholders, and the increase in R & D expenses is due to innovation and technological upgrading.
Engineering construction revenue / orders both increased, and the mineral business is expected to accelerate. At the end of the 21st century, 137.2 billion orders were in hand, with an order revenue ratio of 1.6. Newly signed orders were 100.2 billion, yoy + 153.4%, including 91.47/8.69 billion and yoy + 155.6/208.8 for infrastructure / housing construction respectively; The significant increase in engineering orders is mainly related to the increase in orders of major shareholders. In 21 years, the revenue from engineering / logistics / BOT business was 69.47/11.89/2.33 billion, yoy + 42.9/20.3/31.8%; The gross profit margin was 7.0/0.4/63.8%, yoy + 1.0/0.0/8.0pct, and the project construction increased brightly. The construction of NANJIANG NEPHELINE new material project of Xinwang mineral New Material Co., Ltd. started, and the formation of syndicate was completed and the mine construction was started in Eritrea Polymetallic Mine.
The construction of Sichuan Chongqing economic circle is accelerated, and the project construction is expected to accelerate after the completion of asset restructuring. The construction of Chengdu Chongqing economic circle will be accelerated. By 25 years, the transportation investment in Sichuan is expected to be more than 1.2 trillion, and the highway, waterway, railway and rail transportation planning is 0.7/0.3/0.22 trillion. In 21 years, the former shareholder railway investment and trading investment completed the merger and established Shudao investment, and the expressway that has been opened to traffic accounts for 80% of the cities in the province. In March, the company made progress in acquiring the equity of Communications Construction Group / high road construction / high road greening, and plans to transfer Sichuan Expressway Company Limited(601107) holding 5% equity of Communications Construction Group in cash. The company’s position as the core construction platform of the group will be consolidated, and it has significant advantages in obtaining orders. Under the background of accelerating the construction of Sichuan Chongqing economic circle, the engineering business is expected to accelerate.
The introduction of strategic investors and the establishment of subsidiaries have steadily promoted the new energy business. The company plans to issue 260 / 0.7 / 0.30 million shares to Shudao capital / Energy Investment Group / Byd Company Limited(002594) to introduce war Investment Overweight new energy. Currently at 1 Cathode material: Sichuan xinlixiang phase I has an annual output of 10000 tons, and the ternary cathode material has reached the production capacity; 2. Phosphate rock: it is proposed to invest 100 million yuan to participate in the bankruptcy and reorganization of Jinchuan company and establish a joint venture with Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) / Byd Company Limited(002594) / Hefeng company to develop phosphate rock; 3. Lithium mine: it is proposed to transfer the 5% equity of energy investment lithium industry held by Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) in cash. As an enterprise affiliated to Sichuan Province, the idea of infrastructure for lithium mine will still provide chips for obtaining mines. The company plans to establish two subsidiaries, Shudao clean energy and Shudao new material technology, to integrate its clean energy and mineral resources businesses respectively, so as to promote the new energy business on the right track.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company’s EPS will be 1.50/1.73/1.96 yuan / share from 2022 to 2024 (originally predicted EPS 1.48/1.76 in 2022 / 2023). Referring to the average valuation level of peers, we recognize that the reasonable valuation of the company is 9xpe in 2022, the corresponding target price is 13.50 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
Bad debts of accounts receivable, newly signed orders and transformation are less than expected, and the business expansion of new mineral materials is less than expected, which has a negative impact on the valuation risk
