\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 29.8 million shares of restricted stock to 1635 directors, senior executives and core technical / business personnel of the company, accounting for about 0.55% of the total share capital of the company. The grant price is based on the average closing price of the company's shares on the five trading days before the grant date, and 80% of the benchmark price is the finally determined grant price of restricted stock, And the grant price shall not be less than 30.76 yuan / share..
The key points of the draft restricted stock incentive plan are as follows: (1) assessment objectives: the total product sales in 22-23 years shall not be less than 90.2 million tons (about twice the sales in 21 years), the total product sales in 22-24 years shall not be less than 137.25 million tons (about 3 times the sales in 21 years), and the total product sales in 22-25 years shall not be less than 185.8 million tons (about 4 times the sales in 21 years). (2) Granted to: directors, senior executives and core technical / business personnel of the company, including 8 directors and senior executives including the chairman, accounting for 5.06% of the total rights and interests granted by the incentive plan, and the remaining 1627 core technical / business personnel accounting for 94.94%. (3) Unlocking time: it is unlocked in three phases, and the unlocking proportion is 40% / 30% / 30% respectively; (4) Amortization expenses: if granted in April, the total amortization expenses will be 6.391 billion yuan, and the amortization expenses will be 15.75/23.62/15.58/7.25/170 million yuan in 22-26 years respectively.
The performance target is stable and demonstrates confidence in long-term development. From the perspective of the target, if it is just achieved, the CAGR of the company's sales volume in 21-25 years will be 2.78%, the year-on-year growth rate of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) in 18-21 years will be 11% / 3% / 8% / - 4% respectively, and the compound growth rate of sales volume under the influence of the epidemic in 18-21 years will also reach 2.41%. Therefore, we believe that the equity incentive target is stable and highly attainable. From the perspective of the grant object, the equity incentive covers a wide range, and the core technology / business personnel account for a large proportion of the total equity. Considering that the company's senior executives and core backbones hold shares indirectly before the incentive plan, the proportion is low. Therefore, we believe that the main purpose of this incentive is to bind the core backbone interests for a long time, effectively stimulate the enthusiasm and motivation of the team, and ensure the medium and long-term high-quality and stable development.
The production and marketing continued to advance, and the central kitchen and condiment business had a bright spot. By the end of 2021, the company has 6171 production and sales bases in China, and is expected to have a total of 611 production and sales bases in the future. Relying on the company's rich grain and oil product matrix, national production base and logistics supply chain system, the central kitchen project realizes the industrialization of table food, which is expected to become a new performance driver of the company. Hangzhou central kitchen project is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, which will be the preliminary water test of the central kitchen project. In terms of condiment business, the company's Wanzhuang soy sauce phase II project in Taizhou is under preparation, and the production capacity will double after completion. At the same time, the company is preparing to build a factory in Yangjiang, Guangdong, and plans to produce Cantonese soy sauce. In the future, the company will adopt dual brand and dual strategy to develop soy sauce business. The company's Liangfen vinegar factory in Shanxi is also expanding its production.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. We expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be 2571 / 2896 / 321.7 billion yuan, net profit to be 65.40/82.099632 billion yuan and EPS to be 1.21/1.51/1.78 yuan respectively, corresponding to 41.5/33.1/28.2 times of current PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: food safety risk, risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, hedging risk and risk that new business expansion is less than expected.
