\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021.
Key investment points:
The performance in 2021 is relatively stable. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 2.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%; The weighted average return on net assets was 10.72%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s revenue declined slightly in 2021, mainly due to: after the land wind rush installation in the wind power industry, the demand for small units decreased and the sales proportion of large capacity units increased; The decline in operating revenue of 1.5mw/gw2s unit is greater than that of 3S / 4S / 6S / 8s. The increase of gross profit and net profit from the development of large wind farms is mainly due to the increase of impairment and net profit of the parent company.
(1) the sales structure of fan products is obviously optimized. In 2021, the total installed capacity of wind turbine sales of the company was 1068322mw, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%. Among them, the sales capacity of 1.5MW, 2S, 3S / 4S, 6S / 8s and MSPM reached 60.15, 411440, 444942, 195075 and 108.50mw respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 80.06%, – 61.60%, 210.27% and 305.01% respectively. It is worth mentioning that the large-scale of wind turbines has been recognized by the market to reduce the investment cost of single watt and thus reduce lcoe. From 2018 to 2020, the average power of wind turbines in China increased from 2.2MW to 2.7mw, with a power increase of 23%. In 2021, the proportion of sales capacity of gw6s / 8s units and gw3s / 4S units increased to 18.26% and 41.65% respectively. In 2021, after the rush of sea breeze installation, it is expected that the orders of sea breeze will decrease accordingly in 2022; With the rapid promotion of the construction of Fengguang large base and the development of decentralized wind power in the Middle East and offshore wind power in the southeast coastal areas, it is expected that China’s wind power will still face good market demand in 2022, and the company’s wind turbine sales are expected to rebound and continuously optimize the structure.
(2) the average selling price of fans increased slightly. The company’s annual average sales price of fans was 364366 yuan / kW, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%. The increase in the average selling price of the company’s fans is related to the high proportion of large units with high selling price and the better price orders signed under the background of rush loading in the early stage. The average monthly public bidding price calculated by the company shows that since the beginning of 2021, the average monthly bidding price of wind turbines has continued to decline; As of December 2021, the average bidding prices of 3S units and 4S units were 2798 yuan / kW and 2359 yuan / kW respectively, down 8.20% and 21.84% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. It is expected that in 2022, the large-scale unit capacity will continue to be promoted, the upstream and downstream cooperation of the industrial chain will reduce the cost, and the sales price of various models of the company will decline.
(3) the provision for asset impairment erodes profits. At the end of 2021, the company made a total of 1.758 billion yuan of provision for credit impairment and asset impairment. Among them, the accounts with high proportion include provision for impairment of accounts receivable, provision for impairment of development expenditure, provision for impairment of intangible assets, provision for impairment of goodwill and provision for impairment of inventory. Excluding the impact of impairment provision, the company’s net profit performance is significantly better than that of the statement. The full provision of asset impairment has a one-time impact, which is conducive to reducing the burden of assets and showing the real financial situation.
(4) there are abundant orders on hand. By the end of 2021, the company had 13.27gw of orders to be executed externally, 3.60gw of orders not signed externally and 0.56gw of internal orders. In the order structure, external orders to be executed include 7.86gw for 3S / 4S platform products, 2.53gw for MSPM units and 2.85gw for 2S platform products. While the external bid winner has not signed the order, MSPM unit is 2.28gw. The order structure of the company follows the trend of large-scale industry, with large unit orders accounting for a relatively high proportion, and the newly launched medium speed permanent magnet unit orders are growing rapidly, which is expected to constitute a new growth point.
The launch of medium speed permanent magnet fan products is expected to enter the mass production stage in 2022. The company has released a new generation of flagship products of medium speed permanent magnet, which has the characteristics of more reasonable transmission chain design, good operation condition of generator gearbox and high reliability of the whole machine. It can be applied to a variety of application scenarios such as centralized, large base, decentralized, conventional altitude, high altitude and offshore. In 2021, after the introduction of medium speed permanent magnet products, the company obtained a large number of purchase orders and commercial applications in many projects in Xinjiang, Gansu and other places. At the initial stage of product introduction, the gross profit margin of medium speed permanent magnet products is low. It is expected that the volume and profit of medium speed permanent magnet products will increase in 2022.
Under the background of “double carbon”, the investment and development of wind farms contribute to stable income, and the arrears of stock subsidies may be solved at one time. In 2021, the company’s wind farm added 1.4gw of equity installed capacity, transferred 0.83gw, accumulated grid connected capacity of 6.07gw and 2.59gw under construction. In 2021, the power generation revenue of the company’s wind power projects was 5.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.56%; The transferred wind farm contributed 949 million yuan of investment income. The company has deeply cultivated wind power resources, abundant reserve projects and contributed to stable operating income. It is noteworthy that the “expenditure at the central level” in the “expenditure of other government funds” mentioned in the “expenditure budget table of central government funds in 2022” increased from 92.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 452.8 billion yuan, which may be used to solve the long-standing problem of arrears of new energy subsidies. The payment of renewable energy arrears subsidies is conducive to improving the cash flow of operators, alleviating the financial pressure of operators and promoting project development.
Maintain the company’s “overweight” investment rating. It is estimated that the fully diluted EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 0.90 yuan / share and 1.15 yuan / share respectively. Calculated according to the closing price of 13.13 yuan / share on March 31, the corresponding PE will be 14.56 and 11.46 times respectively. Compared with the same industry, the company’s valuation level is low. As the leader of China’s wind power host, the company pays attention to technological innovation and product quality. The optimization of product structure has significantly improved its profitability and maintained the “overweight” investment rating of the company.
Risk warning: the bidding price of wind turbine continues to decline, and there is a risk of declining profitability; Industry competition intensifies.
