\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 317 Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) )
Event: the company released its annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 185 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.32%. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 628 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 136.78%.
Under the pressure of weak consumption and inventory, the revenue ratio of Q4 was improved. The year-on-year change of revenue in each quarter of the year is + 56.21% / – 15.41% / – 37.12% / – 25.22%. We expect that the main reasons for the month on month decline in revenue in the first three quarters are: 1) the repeated impact of the epidemic and the weak overall consumer demand; 2) The base number is high under the catalysis of epidemic situation in 20 years; 3) The impact of emerging channels of community group buying; 4) The channel inventory is relatively high. In order to ensure the benign channel, the company carries out inventory elimination. On the whole, the destocking strategy is effective, and Q4 revenue has improved month on month.
The bottom material moving pin is slow, and the performance of winter adjustment is bright. In terms of products, the company’s hot pot seasoning / Chinese dish seasoning / sausage bacon seasoning achieved a revenue of 875 / 849 / 212 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 28.28% / – 10.42% / + 111.65%; The sales volume changed by – 31.21% / + 1.67% / + 102.63% year-on-year respectively, and the ton price increased by + 4.27% / – 11.89% / + 4.45% year-on-year respectively. At the end of the 21st century, the expected decline was large. We believe that the main reason is that the dynamic sales of the base material is slow, and the company has strengthened its promotion. Due to the 20-year low base and low price catalysis of pork, dongdiao has achieved high-speed growth as a whole. In terms of subregions, the year-on-year change of Southwest / Central China / East China / Northwest / North China / Northeast / South China is – 11.05% / – 11.79% / – 12.75% / – 13.65% / – 21.13% / – 29.42% / – 19.79% / + 8.99%. In terms of sub channels, dealers / customized meal dispatching / e-commerce / direct business super channels changed by – 21.7% / + 55.89% / – 1.04% / + 14.35% year-on-year. In 2021, the company had 3409 dealers, with a year-on-year increase of 408, including 137 / 29 / 110 / 41 / 31 / 59 / 1 in Southwest / central / East / Northwest / North / Northeast / South China respectively. The company continues to expand its nationwide channels and promote the refined operation of channels. In addition, under the background of catering recovery, the company’s customized meal adjustment increased by 55.89% year-on-year to 253 million yuan.
Under the pressure of cost, the profit is under short-term pressure, and the profitability of Q4 is significantly improved. The gross profit margin of the company reached 32.22% in 21 years, down 9.27pcts year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous rise in the cost of raw materials and the increase in purchase and gift under the company’s de inventory strategy. The rate of sales / management / R & D expenses of the company in 21 years was 19.45% / 6.72% / 1.29% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.6/1.11 / – 1.07/0pct. Among them, the rate of Q4 sales expenses was 10.83%, with a year-on-year / month decrease of 17.96/12.99pcts respectively. The company achieved a net interest rate of 9.10% in the whole year, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3pcts, and the net interest rate of each quarter changed by -7.69 / – 21.9 / – 18.81 / + 11.36pcts year-on-year. The profitability of Q4 company has improved significantly. We expect that the main reasons are: 1) channel inventory tends to be benign and Q4 reduces promotion expenses; 2) In response to the rising pressure of raw material costs, the company raised the prices of some products in mid October. After 20 and 21 years of continuous brand investment, the company is actively adjusting its marketing strategy in order to achieve a better cost-effectiveness ratio. We expect that the overall sales expense rate in 22 years is expected to continue to be optimized.
With internal optimization and channel improvement, the company is expected to achieve light loading and growth in 22 years. Looking forward to 2022, the company plans to increase its operating revenue by no less than 15% year-on-year and net profit by no less than 30%. Under the adjustment of 21 years, the company is expected to achieve restorative growth. We suggest to pay active attention to the marginal changes of the company. 1) the channel inventory is benign, the superimposed product line is reorganized, and the overall dynamic sales are good; 2) The internal organizational structure of the company has been actively adjusted, and the personnel tend to be stable. Under the new equity incentive, the overall team has strong confidence; 3) The sophisticated operation of dealers and the effective management of the terminal can be improved. In addition, the company actively constructs the upstream and downstream layout of the industrial chain and explores industrial M & A projects, so as to enhance the company’s position in the industrial chain and ensure the stable supply of raw materials and the development of downstream market scenarios.
Profit forecast: under the condition of low inventory last year, the C-end of 22q1 company is expected to make a good start. Throughout the year, the restorative growth trend of the company is obvious, and the operating margin is improved. It is suggested to pay active attention to it. According to the annual report of the company for 21 years and the guidelines for 22 years, the profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 2.650/3.293/4.010 billion in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 30.85% / 24.24% / 21.79% (the value before 22 / 23 was 27.49% / 26.57%), and a net profit of RMB 351463/618 million, with a year-on-year increase of 90.03% / 31.96% / 33.41% (the value before 22-23 years was 86.58% / 31.71%), and EPS of RMB 0.47/0.61/0.82 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety risks; Covid-19 epidemic risk; Risk of rising costs
