\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2021, the total operating revenue was 109.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, and the net profit was 52.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. Based on this calculation, 4q achieved a total operating revenue of 32.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, recorded a net profit of 15.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and successfully completed the target set at the beginning of the year. In addition, 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and 28200 tons of series base liquor were produced throughout the year.
On March 29, it was announced that the revenue of 2022q1 was expected to reach 33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the net profit was recorded at 16.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Dividend scheme: 216.75 yuan cash dividend will be distributed for every 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of 51.9%.
The revenue of Moutai liquor in the whole year was 93.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the revenue of series liquor was 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26%. According to the announcement calculation, the revenue of 4q Moutai liquor in a single quarter was about 28.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, which was significantly higher than that in previous quarters. We believe that it is mainly due to the continuous increase of pumao and non-standard volume in peak seasons and the proportion of direct sales channels. In the whole year, the revenue of direct sales was 24.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81, 4q's revenue in a single quarter was 9.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94.4%, accounting for nearly 30%; The revenue of series wine list in the quarter was about 3.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and the annual targets were successfully achieved.
At the beginning of the new year, the company raised the 15 retail guide prices of Maotai new treasure wine and old wine, and before the Spring Festival, the ex factory price of the company's series of liquor "Maotai 1935" was about 80% of Maotai liquor, supplemented the product matrix of 1000 yuan to further supplement the supply during the Spring Festival. From January to February, the formula revenue and net profit increased by about 20%, which verified that the company's Spring Festival products sold well and achieved a "good start". Compared with the operating data from January to February, the growth rate of revenue and profit in a single month in March fell slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and 17% respectively. However, when the overall sales weakened, the performance was still supported, indicating that the effect of market-oriented reform is gradually reflected.
During the reporting period, the management expenses increased by 24.5% year-on-year due to the increase of employee salary and maintenance expenses, but the expenses generally maintained a steady growth, and the expense rate increased by 0.08 percentage point year-on-year to 9.42%.
We expect that without price increase, the company will continue to grow steadily in 2022 (the company expects the revenue growth rate to be about 15% this year), and the price increase of non-standard products and the continuous volume of direct sales channels will bring performance increment. On March 31, Maotai's official digital marketing platform "I Maotai" went online for trial operation. At present, it has made an appointment to purchase products such as tiger Mao, Maotai 1935 and rare wine. In the short term, the market price of Maotai has decreased significantly due to the impact of the epidemic and the launch of the new platform (the original box price is about 2800 yuan / bottle, and the price of spare parts is 2600 yuan / bottle). However, with the digestion of market sentiment, in the long term, the launch of the direct marketing platform will help the society to destock and improve the bottle opening rate, The company's initiative in terminal management will also be higher, which is also in line with the concept of market-oriented reform of the company. In terms of production capacity, in 2021, the output of Maotai base liquor was exceeded (the target set at the beginning of the year was 55300 tons). With the completion of technical transformation in the future, the production capacity of series liquor is expected to continue to expand. With reference to the output of base liquor in previous years, the bottleneck of Maotai liquor output will be alleviated in the future.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the net profit will be 61.26 billion and 69.72 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% and 13.8% respectively. The EPS will be 48.77 yuan and 55.50 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 35 times and 31 times of PE respectively. Affected by market fluctuations, the current valuation has dropped significantly and is raised to the "buy" investment proposal.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic is repeated, and the marketing reform is less than expected
