\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 11.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 102.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 410.26%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.907 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 622.76%; The basic earnings per share was 3.73 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 372.15%.
The acquisition and development of lithium resources has been steadily promoted, and the pace of raw material development has been matched with the growth of processing capacity. During the reporting period, the company continued to expand the supply channels of high-quality lithium resources worldwide, and planned to acquire the control of bacanora, acquire 49% equity of Yiliping Salt Lake in Qinghai, and acquire 50% equity of goulamina spodumene project in Mali, Africa. The amount of lithium resources (proved) is expected to exceed 50 million tons, and the amount of rights and interests is expected to exceed 27 million tons (LCE). From the perspective of the company's current spodumene underwriting structure, taking into account Marion's expansion and the change of the latest underwriting agreement, as well as the commissioning of goulamina, Finniss, Manono, Pilbara phase II and other projects, the company can obtain about 1.07 million tons of lithium concentrate products for its own use + 290000 tons of OEM every year in the future, which can support up to 180000 tons of spodumene lithium extraction capacity, This basically matches the company's goal of achieving a production capacity of 300000 tons of lithium products (pyroxene + brine + clay) in 2025. In view of the difficulty of obtaining high-quality lithium resources worldwide, the company has obvious comparative advantages in upstream resource reserves, raw material self-sufficiency rate, matching degree with processing capacity and other indicators among Chinese lithium companies, which is one of the core competitiveness of the company for long-term development.
The simultaneous rise in volume and price drives the explosive growth of lithium salt business, and the excellent performance of 21q4 is expected to be maintained. Lithium salt is the core business of the company (the revenue accounts for 74.6% and the gross profit accounts for 89.5%). In 2021, the revenue of the sector increased by + 115.5% year-on-year to RMB 8.323 billion, the gross profit increased by 340% year-on-year to RMB 3.976 billion, and the gross profit margin increased by 18.4pct to 39.8%. The explosive growth of performance mainly benefited from: (1) the sharp rise of lithium price center (China's average price of lithium carbonate + 173% year-on-year, lithium hydroxide + 118%), and the company's average selling price of lithium salt products increased by 49% year-on-year to 107800 yuan / ton (the company had more overseas lithium hydroxide orders in 2020 and the price was higher than that in China, resulting in a higher base); (2) The active and effective release of capacity: the effective capacity of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide / lithium metal reached 2.8/7.0/021500 tons respectively, an increase of 8.7% / 125.8% / 34.4% compared with 2020, and the production and sales volume of lithium salt (LCE) was 897 / 90700 tons, an increase of 65.2% / 44.0% year-on-year. 21q4 deducted 1.479 billion yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, the highest profit in a single quarter since the establishment of the company, higher than the sum of the first three quarters; Considering that the price of lithium in China has risen to 500000 yuan / ton in 22q1, under the expectation that the overseas long-term single price and the long-term association price of lithium concentrate will follow the rise, the company's lithium salt business will continue to show a year-on-year high growth trend in 2022, and the gross profit margin may maintain a historical high level of more than 40%.
The lithium battery business grew steadily, and the recycling business began to take shape. In 2021, the company produced and sold 129 / 119 million lithium battery products, with a year-on-year increase of 63.3% / 64.9%, driving the revenue of lithium battery sector to 2.022 billion yuan and gross profit to 242 million yuan. The total capacity of the company's consumer and TWS batteries is about 200 million / year. At present, the production and sales scale of lithium batteries still has about 50% growth space; The company plans to build a total of 15gwh power / energy storage battery project in Jiangxi and Chongqing, and contribute more than 12 billion yuan of revenue when reaching production capacity. In terms of recycling business, the company has formed 34000 tons of decommissioned battery disassembly and recycling capacity, laying the foundation for the capacity expansion of subsequent ternary precursor projects.
Profit forecast and rating: the demand for new energy vehicles remains booming, the tight supply of concentrate and lithium salt is difficult to solve in the short term, and the price of lithium salt may remain high before 2025; The company's performance will fully benefit from the resonance of many factors such as lithium price rise, capacity expansion and cost advantage. We expect to achieve revenue of 32.247/42.167/55.308 billion yuan, net profit attributable to parent company of 11.023146.91/18.232 billion yuan, EPS of 7.67/10.22/12.68 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 16.39/12.29/9.91x, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the project is put into operation less than expected, the lithium price has fallen sharply, and the political risk of resource countries.
