\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event:
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) issue annual report on 2021:
In 2021, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) achieved an operating revenue of 207187 billion yuan, an increase of 53.200 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 34.55% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.06 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 70.1%. The annual business volume reached 10.55 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 29.65%, and the single ticket revenue was 16.25 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.57%.
In 2021q4, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) achieved an operating revenue of 71.326 billion yuan, an increase of 60.67% year-on-year and 50.11% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.471 billion yuan, an increase of 43.01% year-on-year and 138.16% month on month; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 15.01 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.07% and a month on month increase of 85.34%.
Key investment points:
All businesses have maintained steady growth, and some new businesses of SF have preliminarily completed scale accumulation
In 2021, SF entered the high capital expenditure cycle again, and its businesses also maintained steady growth. Throughout the year, SF achieved a revenue of 207187 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.55%. Among them, the revenue of time effective express was 96.160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; The revenue of economic express was 32.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%; The revenue of express business was 23.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.57%; The revenue of cold chain business was 7.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; Local business revenue was 5.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.06%; The revenue of supply chain and international business was 39.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.80%.
After 4-5 years of incubation and cultivation, SF new business has preliminarily completed scale accumulation in their respective segments: SF express ranks first in China’s LCL express industry for two consecutive years, SF cold transport ranks first in the “top 100 list of China’s cold chain logistics” for three consecutive years, and SF Tongcheng has also grown into the largest independent third-party real-time distribution service platform in China. This means that SF will step through the flow expansion period of new business and gradually enter a new development stage of balancing scale growth and profitability, and the new business will be realized in turn.
In the fourth quarter, the net profit deducted from non return to parent became positive year-on-year, and Shunfeng’s profitability has been quickly repaired
With the ramp up of capacity utilization, the adjustment of organizational structure and the optimization of product and customer structure, SF’s profitability has been repaired rapidly. In terms of gross profit, the gross profit margins from 2021q1 to Q4 were 7.16%, 12.84%, 13.46% and 14.47% respectively, with a clear month on month repair trend. In 2021q4, SF achieved a net profit of RMB 1.501 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.07% and a month on month increase of 85.34%. It achieved positive growth for the first time in the year; Excluding the net profit of 370 million yuan generated by the consolidation of Kerry Logistics since October, SF deducted the net profit of non parent company to achieve 1.13 billion yuan, still achieving a year-on-year increase of 10%. In terms of business, with the promotion of the four networks financing project and the consolidation of Kerry Logistics, all new businesses have reduced losses or increased profits. In terms of express, the annual net loss of express segment reached 582 million yuan, with a net interest rate of – 1.87%, narrowing by 2.19 PCTs year-on-year; In the same city, the annual net loss of the same city segment reached 899 million yuan, and the net interest rate was – 11.00%, narrowed by 4.62 PCTs year-on-year; In terms of international and supply chain, the annual net profit of supply chain and international segments reached 615 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 497.60%, and the net interest rate was 1.52%, a year-on-year increase of 0.77 percentage points. The consolidation of Kerry Logistics quickly thickened the profit of international business and improved the profitability of international business.
From brand collaboration to business collaboration, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) as a medium and high-end comprehensive logistics giant who has long been optimistic about the prominent option value of new business, SF has carried out multi track layout through brand collaboration on the basis of continuously building the moat of time-effective parts. Therefore, the scale of new businesses such as express, e-commerce express, international and intra city has expanded rapidly. With the gradual maturity of new business development, all new businesses will enter the stage of realization in a rhythmic manner, From traffic expansion to a new stage of business growth and profit rebalancing. Looking forward to 2022, SF will, under the business strategy of steady development and healthy profit, continue to explore business synergy, continuously optimize production capacity and increase income while paying attention to benefit return. According to the track, at present, high-end Express has a pattern and international tracks have dividends. The more mature express and international business is expected to take the lead in making profits.
From a long-term perspective, the integrated logistics layout of Kerry has been gradually improved and the integrated logistics layout of SF has been gradually improved. Brand synergy and business synergy are expected to bring industry-leading scale effect and synergy effect to SF, and SF is optimistic about its leading position and competitive advantage in the comprehensive logistics track for a long time.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the company’s annual report. It is estimated that the operating revenue of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) 2022-2024 will be 275644 billion yuan, 345191 billion yuan and 417684 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.027 billion yuan, 9.355 billion yuan and 11.863 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 3.098 billion yuan, 23.27 billion yuan and 18.35 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of aging parts is lower than expected, the cost optimization is lower than expected, the macroeconomic growth slows down, the competition of medium and high-end tracks intensifies, and the M & A integration is lower than expected
