\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
Steady revenue growth, optimistic about channel reform + category expansion, strengthen competitive advantage and maintain the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 21.585 billion yuan (+ 16.07%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.944 billion yuan (+ 5.29%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 5.920 billion yuan (+ 11.87%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 703 million yuan (- 8.16%). Considering that the company's channel reform and category expansion are expected to strengthen its competitive advantage, we maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 2.357/26.96/3.074 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.91/3.33/3.80 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 18.3/16.0/14.0 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Channel reform + category expansion led to steady growth of domestic sales, while SEB order transfer led to good growth of export sales
(1) domestic sales business: the revenue in 2021 was 14.26 billion yuan (+ 10.80%), which still achieved steady growth during the downturn of the industry. On the one hand, the effect of "one inventory" mode and DTC channel reform is obvious, on the other hand, the expansion of high growth fields such as clean appliances has achieved remarkable results. In 2021, the company's direct sales revenue increased by 348.76%. According to ovicloud data, the company's online share of integrated stoves / clean appliances in 2021 was + 1.09pcts / + 0.38pcts respectively year-on-year.
(2) export business: in 2021, the revenue was 7.326 billion yuan (+ 27.91%), thanks to the transfer of global orders from SEB group to the company. According to the announcement of related party transactions, the amount of goods sold to SEB is expected to be + 1.6% year-on-year in 2022q1 and + 10.1% year-on-year in 2022, maintaining a steady growth.
Affected by the high price of raw materials, the cost pressure continues in 2021q4
Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the change of accounting standards, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 23% (-3.43pcts). Under the same caliber, the gross profit margin in 2021 was -0.38pcts year-on-year, and the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was -2.52pcts year-on-year. On the expense side, in 2021, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate were -2.57pcts / + 0.15pcts / - 0.29pcts respectively year-on-year, and the sales expense rate under the same caliber was + 0.47pcts year-on-year. Under the comprehensive influence, the net interest rate in 2021 is 9.01% (-0.92pcts).
Domestic sales channel reform + category expansion has achieved remarkable results, and export sales pay attention to a new round of pricing adjustment to drive profit recovery
Looking forward to 2022, the domestic business will benefit from the growth of the industry and continue to be optimistic about the expansion of new fields such as living / cleaning appliances, driving the steady growth of revenue; Optimistic about the channel reform dividend release, vibrate and other emerging channels tiktok and raw material prices stabilized to drive domestic sales growth. The export business is expected to maintain stable growth by virtue of its competitive advantage, and the profitability is expected to gradually recover driven by a new round of pricing adjustment. On the whole, it is optimistic that domestic and foreign sales will drive profit recovery.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises; SEB orders are transferred overseas; Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
