\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 38 Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) )
Event: Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) 2021 achieved an operating revenue of 4.109 billion yuan, yoy + 49.78%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 401 million yuan, yoy + 41.51%; Operating net cash flow was -422 million yuan, yoy-225.19%. Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, yoy + 61.82%, QoQ + 21.71%; Net profit attributable to parent company is 781460 million yuan, yoy + 30.51%, qoq-35.16%; Operating net cash flow was -13257200 yuan, yoy-109.82%, QoQ + 92.99%.
Under the background of chip shortage, it still maintained rapid growth. This year, the pressure on the supply side eased and boosted the gross profit margin. Despite the adverse environment of rising price & shortage of upstream chips, the company’s revenue in 21 years still achieved a rapid growth of nearly 50% year-on-year, mainly from: 1) cat The demand for IOT modules represented by class 1 breaks out; 2) Breakthrough volume of vehicle module business; 3) PC business continues to maintain its leading edge. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 24.10%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.21pct. Among them, the gross profit margins of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 were 25.11%, 25.89%, 25.05% and 21.25% respectively, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials in the upstream of the supply chain and the change of shipment structure. The company has maintained a high level of goods preparation to cope with future operation and production. At the end of 2021, the company’s inventory reached 807 million yuan, an increase of 57.14% over the beginning of the period. As the upstream core shortage eases this year, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to further recover.
The PC module market has huge room for improvement. High penetration potential + high-quality customers help the company maintain a leading level. PC module is the company’s largest source of revenue. According to strategy analytics, the global shipment of mobile PC with cellular function will reach 14.3 million units in 2025, of which the market share of PC supporting 5g will increase to 69%. At present, the penetration rate of PC terminal cellular module is only 5%, there is a huge penetration space, and the company’s PC terminal module is expected to continue to benefit from the improvement of cellular penetration rate. The company’s PC business has high-quality customer resources, adheres to the key customer strategy, and has obvious market advantages in the wireless communication module products at the PC end. The company, together with Intel and media TEK, jointly released a new generation of fully interconnected PC 5g module fm350 based on media Tek t7005g chip, cooperated with Lenovo, HP and other manufacturers in communication module research and development, continued to promote the application and new product layout of 5g PC, and is expected to continue to maintain its leading advantage in the PC market in the future.
The vehicle module market is broad and the pattern is clear. Guangtong Yuanchi + Ruiling wireless has opened the third growth stage. Since its establishment, the company has grown rapidly relying on POS, PC and other large particle scenarios. We expect that the next big particle scenario comes from the Internet of vehicles. According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, the penetration rate of the global Internet of vehicles will increase from 30.7% in 2018 to 45% in 2020. It is expected that by 2025, the global Internet of vehicles will cover nearly 60% of vehicles, the market scale of the Internet of vehicles will increase from 643.44 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate of the industry will exceed 15%. In addition, due to the long certification time and high entry threshold in the vehicle front loading market, the competition of vehicle modules will be further improved and the pattern will be clearer. At present, the company has made a breakthrough in China’s vehicle front loading business. In 2021, Guangtong Yuanchi, which is responsible for China’s vehicle networking module, achieved a revenue of 398 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1190%. At the same time, the company’s acquisition of SWIR front mounted vehicle module business is progressing smoothly. In the future, the company will be responsible for overseas vehicle module business and cooperate with China’s Internet of vehicles market. It is expected to copy the key customer service mode in POS and PC market and open the third stage of revenue growth of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 544 million yuan, 961 million yuan and 1.391 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.31, 2.32 and 3.36 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE value from 2022 to 2024, which is 28, 16 and 11 times respectively. We are optimistic that the company will carry out the third growth stage with vehicle modules, become one of the duopoly of the Internet of things, and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the shortage of upstream chips was alleviated less than expected, and the penetration rate of Internet of vehicles was less than expected.
