\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.783-1.970 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 1.791-1.979 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%. The performance exceeded our expectations.
The market demand for HPV vaccine is strong, and it is expected to continue high growth in 2022: compared with the market of 350 million school-age people, the penetration rate of HPV vaccine is less than 6%, the market supply is less than demand, and consumers have a long waiting time for four or nine price vaccine. Domestic four price and nine price vaccines are expected to be on the market in two years. Therefore, 2022 and 2023 are the golden years for the company’s product sales. It is expected that the supply of HPV vaccines in China may be increased, and HPV vaccines will continue to grow rapidly in 2022.
The independent product pipeline is advancing smoothly and will be realized gradually: the company has 26 independent R & D projects and actively promotes the promotion and access of EC and wechat. It is expected to win the bid in more than 90% of China’s provinces in the first half of 2022 and contribute significantly to the company in the second half of 2022. In addition, the production of freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) is about to be reported. The production of tetravalent influenza vaccine and freeze-dried triple vaccine is expected to be reported in 2022. The 15 valent pneumonia vaccine and tetravalent meningitis conjugate vaccine have entered phase III clinical practice, and the independent product pipeline has been gradually realized, which is expected to open up a long-term growth space.
The National Health Commission launched covid-19 vaccine to strengthen immunization in sequence, and the recombinant protein vaccine is expected to contribute significantly to the company: on February 19, 2022, the National Health Commission launched sequential immunization. Zhifei recombinant protein vaccine has great market potential with its advantages of good safety and high protection efficiency. In the overseas market, the company actively promotes the certification of who and has been successively approved in Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Ecuador and other places. The overseas export of recombinant covid-19 vaccine is expected to contribute to the company’s great performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company’s R & D pipeline has gradually entered the harvest period and the sales of agency products have exceeded our expectations, we raised the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 5.870/7.371 billion to RMB 7.551/9.747 billion in 20222023, with EPS of RMB 4.72/6.09 respectively in 20222023, and the current market value corresponds to 28 / 22 times of PE in 20222023, maintaining the “buy” rating. Since it is difficult to predict the trend of covid-19 epidemic at present, the market forecast of recombinant covid-19 vaccine is not included in the valuation in 2022 and 2023.
Risk tip: the risk of clinical R & D failure; Risk of cancellation of agency business.
