\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 219 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) )
Event: on March 30, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 28.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 3.337 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 8.34 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year and 6.3% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 892 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.3% and a month on month decrease of 11.9%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 859 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and a month on month decrease of 15.4%. The performance is in line with our previous expectations.
The company's product structure has been continuously optimized and the volume and profit have increased simultaneously. Benefiting from the release of project capacity and strong downstream demand, the production and sales of the company's products are booming. In 2021, the production and sales of cold rolled coil / sector of the company were 826000 tons and 900000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.9% and 16.2% respectively, the production and sales of aluminum profile were 195000 tons and 190000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and 0.4% respectively, and the production and sales of aluminum foil were 49000 tons and 60000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% and 9.0% respectively. In 2021, the company's gross profit per ton of cold rolling was 5981 yuan, an increase of 990 yuan year-on-year; The gross profit per ton of aluminum profile was 4468 yuan, an increase of 826 yuan year-on-year; The gross profit per ton of aluminum foil was 5078 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company were 24.6% and 13.0%, increasing by 0.9pct and 3.0pct respectively.
Affected by the price of thermal coal, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was - 11.9% month on month. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2021q4 company were 21.6% and 13.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.92pct and an increase of 2.87pct respectively, a month on month decrease of 4.21pct and 0.24pct respectively, and the three fee rate was 4.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52pct and a month on month increase of 0.40pct. The decline in Q4 performance of the company is mainly due to the obvious rise in the price of thermal coal since the third quarter, the rise in the cost of the company's own power plant and the drag on the profit.
Future highlights: 1) rapid growth of new energy vehicle market, light weight and speed-up. "Double carbon" "In this context, the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the demand for automobile energy consumption will also accelerate the lightweight process of traditional fuel vehicles, with strong demand for automobile sectors and power battery foils. 2) the high-end cold rolling capacity continues to be released, and the product structure continues to be optimized. The company's production capacity of 200000 tons of automobile sectors and 21000 tons of power battery foils is in a climbing period, the supply continues to rise, the proportion of high-performance products continues to increase, and the profitability is enhanced. The company has another 200000 tons of automobile sectors and power battery foils According to the capacity planning of the vehicle board, it is expected to be put into operation in 2023, and the capacity will double. 3) Indonesia's alumina project is expected to increase the net profit attributable to the parent company by 480 million yuan. The company's Indonesia phase I 1 million tons of alumina is currently in full production, and the phase II 1 million tons is expected to be put into operation in 2023. At that time, the Indonesian alumina project is expected to increase the net profit attributable to the parent company by 480 million yuan. 4) With the expansion of internal and external price difference and the further promotion of export performance, LME aluminum price has increased sharply and the internal and external price difference has expanded. In 2021, the company's export revenue accounted for 32.7%. Overseas products are priced in LME aluminum + processing fee mode, and the export volume is expected to increase simultaneously.
Investment suggestion: with the implementation of the company's auto panel and alumina projects, the performance may continue to grow. We expect that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.020 billion yuan, 4.817 billion yuan and 5.676 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with EPS of 0.34 yuan, 0.40 yuan and 0.47 yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 1 is 12, 10 and 9 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of thermal coal rises sharply, the release of production capacity is less than expected, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
