\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 115 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) )
China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) disclose the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 67.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 12.21 billion, and the loss increased slightly by 3.2% year-on-year; In the fourth quarter, the company’s operating revenue was 14.63 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -4.05 billion.
Repeated epidemics have led to pressure on demand, relatively strong ticket prices and increased revenue from cargo and mail security. In 2021, the epidemic situation was repeated, the passenger flow rose and fell, and the distribution of the company’s transportation capacity was different during the year. Throughout the year, ask increased by 5.7%, RPK increased by 1.6%, and the passenger seating rate was 67.71%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.72 PCT. In the whole year, especially in the second half of the year, rigid demand accounted for a relatively high proportion, ticket prices were relatively strong, and passenger transport revenue was 54.11 billion, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year. Throughout the year, there was a high boom in cargo and mail, and the passenger to freight volume increased significantly. The unit freight rate of cargo and mail increased by 10% again. The revenue of cargo and mail was 8.309 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.7%, driving the growth of total revenue by 14.5%.
Aviation fuel cost pressure appeared, and the performance basically met expectations. In 2021, the price of aviation fuel increased quarter by quarter. The company’s annual aviation fuel cost was 20.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, the cost of aviation fuel per ask increased by 39.7%, the cost of non oil was 59.45 billion yuan, and the cost of non oil per ask decreased by 1.2% year-on-year. On the expense side, the overall cost level of the company was optimized. Among them, the sales expense decreased significantly again, the sales expense rate was 3.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6pct, the management and R & D expense rate was 5.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7pct, the financial expense rate was 5.8%, a year-on-year increase of 1.3pct, the financial expense of foreign exchange deduction increased slightly year-on-year, and the financial expense rate of foreign exchange deduction decreased by 0.5pct to 8.2%. The annual disposal income of the company was 734 million, an increase of 705 million year-on-year, and other income was 4.88 billion, a slight decrease year-on-year. The other subjects were basically stable, and the slight expansion of annual loss was basically in line with expectations.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, sharp rise of oil price, sharp fluctuation of exchange rate and safety accidents
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating.
The civil aviation industry is at the bottom of the cycle. At the current time point, the national epidemic is spreading, and the decline in the number of flights is close to the worst period of the epidemic in 2020. A comprehensive reversal needs to be waited. The aircraft fleets of the three major airlines are restrained in the introduction plan as a whole. The continuous low growth of transport capacity will eventually accumulate flexibility for the cycle reversal. Once they choose to open one day, civil aviation will have great upward flexibility. We hope that the company can get out of the event haze as soon as possible and achieve good results again. Considering that the epidemic continues to exceed our expectations, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 from 1.85 billion and 11.74 billion to -9.86 billion and 4.4 billion. We are optimistic about the performance flexibility of the company after the epidemic subsides, and introduced the profit forecast for 2024. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.74 billion, maintaining the “buy” rating.
