\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 368 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) )
Core view
Benefiting from the high outlook of the industry, the company's net profit reached an all-time high. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 2.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 108.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 677 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 883.72%. Due to the strong downstream demand and the lack of OEM capacity, the company adjusted its product structure. In 2021, the proportion of intelligent LED driver chips exceeded that of general led for the first time, reaching 46.19%. In 2021, the company's sales of smart led and general LED driver chips were 2.337 billion and 3.774 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.15% and - 1.47% respectively.
The rise in the price of LED driver chips has greatly improved the company's profitability. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 47.93%, a year-on-year increase of + 22.48pct; The net interest rate was 30.87%, a year-on-year increase of + 24.55pct. Among them, the gross margins of general led, smart led and other chips were 41.35%, 54.26% and 49.02% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.63pct, + 15.64pct and + 30.72pct respectively. In the face of core shortage and the outbreak of downstream demand, the company's general led and intelligent LED driver chip ASP increased significantly, by 70.60% and 44.72% respectively, bringing about a leap forward improvement in the company's profitability.
In 2021q4, the terminal demand weakened and the revenue and profit decreased month on month. In 2021q4, the company realized a revenue of 478 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.59% and a month on month increase of - 37.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan, up + 166.75% year-on-year and - 56.28% month on month. Due to the high base brought by the outbreak of the industry in the first three quarters and the improvement of shipping freight since Q3, the terminal demand began to weaken, and the company's revenue and net profit Q4 fell month on month.
With the increase of smart home application scenarios, the company's smart LED driver is expected to maintain steady growth. The company's intelligent LED driver chips mainly include wireless dimming and color matching products and high-performance lamps. With the increase of smart home application scenarios, consumers' acceptance of products will be further improved, and the market penetration will continue to increase. The company's smart LED lighting driven products will enter a stage of rapid development. It is expected that they will become the main contribution to the company's performance in the next 1-2 years.
Continue to pay attention to the second growth brought by the company's large volume of AC / DC and DC / DC products. In 2021, the company's built-in AC / DC chips for home appliances and mobile phone fast charging external AC / DC chips have made gratifying progress in customer development and product research and development. In terms of DC / DC products, in 2021, the company completed the research and development of digital polyphase controller and entered the stage of customer sample delivery. It is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of the company's AC / DC products in client verification and the continuous improvement of DC / DC product types, and look forward to the performance growth of the company's AC / DC and DC / DC products.
Profit forecast: we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 to be RMB 374 / 570 / 794 million respectively, corresponding to 33 / 22 / 16 times of the share price PE on March 25, and give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the terminal demand is less than expected, and the R & D and import of new products are less than expected.
