\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
Event: on the evening of March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 542 million yuan, an increase of 363 million yuan or 203.19% year-on-year compared with the same period of last year; In 2021, the company realized a net profit of 515 million yuan, an increase of 353 million yuan or 218.49% year-on-year compared with the same period of the previous year. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments:
Capacity utilization and yield were improved, and customer structure was optimized to hedge the rise of raw materials. The price of Q4 raw materials rose in 2021, and the cost of raw materials accounted for 60.8% of the total cost in 2021. The company’s gross profit margin of 21q4 was 21.67%, down 7.74% month on month compared with Q3. However, the net profit margin fell only 1.97% month on month. The company’s Q4 performance still met expectations, mainly due to: (1) optimizing customer structure and product structure. The company’s products are customized and quoted according to the requirements and characteristics of the products, which is completely different from the pricing method of copper foil and aluminum foil. By transmitting price pressure to some customers, the company optimizes the product structure to ensure that the overall profit is not greatly affected. Subsequent companies still have room for further cost reduction through technical optimization and equipment renewal. (2) The company’s orders and production capacity continued to improve, with Q4 revenue of 1.48 billion, a month on month Q3 revenue of + 24.89%. At the same time, the production capacity of factories in Shanghai, Xi’an and Jiangsu continued to climb, contributing to the increase of revenue. (3) Capacity utilization and yield were improved.
The company’s production capacity layout is accelerated, bound to major customers and grow together. By the end of 2021, the factories in Xi’an, Liyang and Shanghai were basically produced. In 2022, with the release of overseas production capacity in Hungary, Sweden and Germany, the expansion of bases in Huizhou and Liyang, China, and the release of production capacity in Yibin and Jingmen, the company’s 22-year output value is expected to increase steadily. The company has established long-term and stable strategic cooperative relations with China’s leading manufacturers such as catl, China Innovation airlines and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and well-known foreign customers such as LG, Panasonic, Tesla, northvolt and Samsung. With the construction of production capacity at home and abroad, it is expected to grow together with major customers.
4680 large columns bring new increment, and the leading position is stable. The company laid out 4680 battery structural parts and entered the Tesla supplier system by supplying 21700 battery structural parts of LG. We believe that 4680 battery is expected to become the mainstream in the high-end vehicle market due to its cost advantage, good thermal conductivity and fast charging capacity. At the same time, with the continuous volume of overseas customers and the stable share of Chinese customers in the supplier system, the company can continue to maintain its leading position.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) is a leading enterprise of structural parts in China, with a wide range of products. It is a core supplier of battery structural parts for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Panasonic, LG and other head battery enterprises, and will fully benefit from the rapid development of Automotive electrification and energy storage industry. Considering that the growth rate of the industry and the company’s cost reduction ability are higher than previously expected, it is predicted that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.143/1.725 billion yuan, an increase of 21% / 16% compared with the previous year. The new forecast for 2024 will be 2.506 billion yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 31 / 21 / 14x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, technical route change risk, policy risk and intensified competition risk.
