\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) publish the 21st Annual Report. In 2021, the revenue was 106.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, the net profit was 52.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and the earnings per share was 41.76 yuan. 4q21's revenue and net profit were 31.5 billion yuan and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and 18.1% in net profit, which was basically consistent with the previous performance forecast.
Key points supporting rating
In the past 21 years, the volume and price of Maotai liquor increased steadily, the proportion of direct sales increased significantly, and the revenue of series liquor increased. In 2021, the company's operating revenue was 106.19 billion yuan, of which 4q21 revenue was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. (1) In terms of products, the revenue of Maotai liquor in 21 years was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The sales volume was 36300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The market launch rhythm of Maotai liquor in 21 years was relatively conservative. The ton price of the product was 2.578 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The increase in the average price of the product was related to the increase in the proportion of direct sales and the increase in the price of non-standard products. In terms of series liquor, the revenue was 12.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%, the sales volume was 30200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and the ton price was 417000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%. With the end of the adjustment of the sales system, the number of dealers resumed growth, the speed of series liquor was accelerated again, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The revenue contribution mainly came from the increase of ton price, with a small increase in sales volume. (2) From the perspective of different channels, the company's direct sales revenue in 2021 was 24.03 billion yuan, an increase of 81.5% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of the revenue, an increase of 8.7pct year-on-year in 2020, of which 4q21 revenue was as high as 9.34 billion yuan, an increase of 94.4% year-on-year. By increasing the proportion of direct sales, the company has significantly increased the average price of products. Traditional distribution channels continue to be optimized. In 2021, there were 63 more dealers and 20 fewer. The increase was mainly Maotai liquor dealers and the decrease was mainly Maotai liquor dealers.
The new team has a new atmosphere, and the production capacity of base liquor is abundant. It is worth looking forward to 2022 and is expected to speed up significantly. (1) In the third quarter, the new and old chairman completed the shift handover. We believe that the new management team can concentrate more on production and operation. The new chairman proposed at the shareholders' meeting that Maotai would follow the market law and reflect the reasonable value. Therefore, we believe that the ex factory price of pumao may be increased in the future. (2) According to the calculation of the company's base liquor output, the base liquor in 2022 is very abundant, which is significantly better than that in the past two years, and there is enough to put. The output of base liquor in 2017 and 2018 reached 42800 and 49700 tons, with a significant increase for two consecutive years. According to the five-year storage cycle of base liquor, there will be plenty of base liquor that can be put on the market in 2022. At the 2022 China brand power ceremony held on February 22, the chairman said that he would meet people's demand for Maotai to the greatest extent, showing that the company has confidence in its own production capacity. (3) According to the performance forecast, from January to March 2022, the revenue and net profit increased by 18% and 19% respectively, significantly faster than that in 2021, continuing the improvement trend since 4q21, and the performance exceeded the market expectation at the beginning of the year.
Valuation
According to the annual report, we adjusted the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.22 yuan, 57.72 yuan and 67.06 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, 17.3% and 16.2%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Channel inventory exceeded expectations. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
