\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 211 Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) )
Event overview
The company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 42.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%; The weighted average roe was 11.05%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.51pct.
Analysis and judgment:
The proportion of self operated brokerage income was the highest, and the rate of management expenses decreased significantly
In terms of income structure, securities proprietary business accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 27%, brokerage business and other businesses account for 22% and 23% respectively, net interest income accounts for 13%, and investment banking, asset management and equity investment account for 9%, 4% and 1% respectively.
From the perspective of the contribution of incremental income, the income from securities proprietary business contributes 31% of the incremental income; 44% of the revenue from commodity business; Investment banking, brokerage, equity investment and asset management contributed 4%, 14%, 5% and 3% respectively; The contribution of net interest income is negative. The rate of administrative expenses decreased significantly. In terms of administrative expenses / (operating income – other business expenses), the proportion was 42% in the reporting period, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9pct.
Self operated asset management increased significantly, and the layout of public offering started smoothly
In 2021, the income from securities proprietary business was RMB 11.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 26%. The company moderately increased leverage, and its investment assets reached 353.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11%; The annualized return on investment was 3.55%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.45%. The trading investment of the company adheres to the development of low-risk and non directional business, steadily improves the trading pricing ability and customer service ability, actively transforms to customer demand business, and maintains rapid growth in business scale.
With the advent of the era of large asset management, the company actively transformed and actively managed. In 2021, the company’s asset management business revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16%. The company’s asset management accelerated the establishment of an integrated investment and research system, strengthened the construction of core talent team, and comprehensively expanded market channels. The public offering transformation of the investment and research system has achieved initial results. Six new public offering products were issued throughout the year, and the scale of funds raised exceeded 6.5 billion yuan. The products cover multiple categories such as index enhancement, bond type, hybrid type and fof. At present, the company’s transfer of 15% equity of Hua’an fund has been approved by the CSRC. After this equity transfer, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) holds 43% of the equity of Hua’an fund from 28%, and the strategic layout of asset management business will be further improved.
Financial management and investment banking grew steadily, and investment consulting business developed rapidly
During the reporting period, the company’s brokerage business income was 9.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%. The share of stock based trading market was 4.23%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.06pct (excluding Shanghai Securities). The market share of the net income from the agency trading of securities business is 5.86% (according to the parent company), which continues to rank first in the industry. During the reporting period, the average monthly scale of financial products sold by the company on a commission basis was 183.6 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 26% in recent five years. The company continued to improve the retail customer service system, focused on building a retail customer technology platform, continuously optimized the collaborative mechanism of financial products, strengthened the standardization of branch outlets and the professional construction of investment advisory team, accelerated the high-quality transformation and development of wealth management, further consolidated the customer base, maintained the industry leadership of traditional brokerage business, and developed rapidly in financial product sales and investment advisory business.
During the reporting period, the income of investment banking business was 4.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. According to wind data, the financing scale of IPO was 30.28 billion yuan, with a market share of 5.02%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.43%; The financing amount of refinancing and core bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, ABS, convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds) were 33.52 billion yuan and 449.92 billion yuan respectively, with market shares of 4.71% and 6.12% respectively. The company deepened the reform of business division system, deeply cultivated key industries, rooted in key regions, focused on key varieties, achieved results in making up for weaknesses in IPO, significantly increased project reserves, and gradually formed the “investment bank +” ecology.
Investment advice
The company has fully implemented the requirements of “comprehensive service, digital operation, international layout and group management and control”, steadily improved its business performance and secured its leading position in the industry; While wealth management and asset management “hit with both fists”, derivatives and other innovative businesses also grew rapidly, and the business structure continued to be optimized.
Based on the better than expected market environment, we raised the forecast of the company’s revenue of 46.002/48.279 billion yuan in 22-23 years to 52.56/64.41 billion yuan, increased the 24-year forecast to 81.48 billion yuan, and raised the eps1.5 billion yuan in 22-23 years The forecast of 74 / 1.80 yuan to 1.89/2.04 yuan, and the 24-year forecast value is increased by 2.19 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 15.90 yuan / share on April 1, 2022, Pb is 0.94/0.93/0.92 times respectively, and the “overweight” rating of the company is adjusted to “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The stock and bond market fluctuated sharply, and the return on proprietary investment fell; Stock market fluctuation and stock pledge business risk; Industry talent competition has led to a significant increase in management fees.
