It will be one of the development trends of conductive agent that fibrous conductive agent can achieve better performance with lower addition. The ionic and electronic conductivity of the cathode material itself is low and the resistance value is high, which is easy to cause the polarization of the electrode sector, which is the main factor limiting the charge discharge cycle and rate performance of the battery. The conductive agent can establish a more efficient conductive network and structure between the positive and negative materials of the battery, and improve the rate performance and cycle life of the battery at the same time. Compared with traditional conductive agents, fibrous conductive agents have larger aspect ratio and better conductivity. Therefore, it will be the development trend of conductive agents to achieve better performance with lower addition. Of course, considering the process, cost, cathode material characteristics and other factors, the fibrous conductive agent is not a 100% complete replacement for the traditional conductive agent. The fibrous conductive agent is mainly carbon nanotubes, in which granular carbon black conductive agent is added to give full play to their advantages, which is expected to become the development direction in the future.
Carbon nanotubes have multiple barriers to competition, and the industry concentration has been further improved. The research and development of carbon nanotubes is extremely difficult, mainly due to the control methods of carbon nanotube diameter and length and the testing of various performance indicators, including the preparation and research and development of catalysts, the research and development of carbon deposition and growth of carbon nanotubes and the application and research and development of carbon nanotubes. At the same time, the control methods of carbon nanotube diameter and length and the testing of various performance indicators are also extremely difficult. In addition, the cost of carbon nanotubes is mainly the raw material, and the BDO upstream of NMP is a bulk chemical product. Therefore, the cost of carbon nanotubes fluctuates greatly by the cost of raw materials, and the cost control ability will become an important indicator of industry competition. In terms of shipment volume in 2020, the top five enterprises are Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Jiyue nano, Cabot (acquired Sanshun nano in April 2020), Qingdao Haoxin ( Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co.Ltd(300409) subsidiary) and Wuxi Dongheng. The industry Cr5 reached 89% in 2020, further improving the industry concentration compared with 2017. Looking forward to the future, the leading enterprises are expected to consolidate their advantages with the advantages of technology and customers. With more enterprises entering the carbon nanotube industry, the second tier enterprises may face increased competition in the future.
The substitution of electric vehicles for oil vehicles will accelerate in the medium and long term. It is expected that the global demand for carbon nanotube powder for lithium battery will reach 11000 tons in 2025. Under the triple core driving factors of the promotion of major national core policies, the strengthening of diversified supply trend and the improvement of the recognition of electric vehicles at the consumption level, medium and long-term electric vehicles will accelerate the replacement of oil vehicles. Globally, China, Europe and the United States will continue to contribute important increments in the future. At the same time, energy storage, electric two wheeled vehicles and other fields are also expected to usher in rapid growth. We expect the total demand for lithium batteries to reach 1994gwh in 2025. Benefiting from the development of lithium battery market, the market demand for carbon nanotube conductive agent will increase rapidly. According to the addition proportion of different anode and cathode material systems, we divide the battery into four material systems: lithium iron phosphate battery system, carbon nanotube demand is about 11 tons / GWH, ternary graphite system is about 1.6-3.2 tons / GWH, high nickel silicon carbon system is about 6.1 tons / GWH, and lithium cobalt battery system is about 2 tons / GWH. According to the calculation, it is estimated that the global demand for carbon nanotube powder for lithium battery will reach 11000 tons in 2025, and the average annual compound growth rate will reach 57.8% from 2020 to 2025.
Investment proposal and investment object
Conductive agents play a very important role in lithium batteries. On the whole, carbon black is mainly point or sheet, while carbon nanotubes are tubular or chain. The combination of the two can form a richer conductive network. With the rapid expansion of new energy market and the opening of industry space, especially the commercial application of silicon carbon anode, carbon nanotube conductive agent will occupy more and more market share in the future because of its multiple advantages. On the one hand, as more and more emerging enterprises enter the conductive agent industry, the competition among second-line enterprises may intensify in the future; On the other hand, due to the extremely high technical R & D barriers of carbon nanotubes, leading enterprises can ensure product performance advantages and profit advantages through continuous product iteration and upgrading, so as to maintain or even further improve the market position. The conductive agent industry is expected to be strong in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , not rated), Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co.Ltd(300409) ( Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co.Ltd(300409) , not rated), etc.
Risk tips
The demand for downstream lithium-ion batteries is lower than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
