Basic conclusion
Online fitness fills the fitness demand in the family scene. Its high cost performance is expected to promote the expansion of users of moderate and mild fitness. It is expected that the user scale will be further expanded under the influence of the epidemic and seasonality. 1) Mode side: online fitness is the main driving force to improve the penetration rate of fitness users. According to insight consulting, the market share of online fitness did not increase significantly from 2015 to 2019, with an increase of 9.1% in five years. From 2020 to 2021, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the business of offline gyms was blocked and the impact of home isolation led to the closure of many offline gyms, and the increase of residents’ home time gave rise to the increase of home fitness demand, The market share of online fitness has increased by 11.4% in two years; 2) Client: online fitness solves the pain point of “fitness difficulty”, and attracts a large number of moderate and mild user groups with high cost performance and convenience. According to the data of the General Administration of sports, the reason why people over the age of 20 don’t want to exercise is that they don’t have time, accounting for 30.6%. The lack of space and economic restrictions account for 10.8% and 4.1% respectively. Online fitness app users can open the mobile terminal to follow the course for exercise anytime and anywhere and use fragmented time to exercise; 3) Structural end: from “eating and practicing” to “eating, wearing and practicing” to bring greater market space.
Taking keep as an example, there are four main cash realization modes for online fitness: online content circle traffic, sales and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integrated operation are the core of future revenue. 1) Mode 1: obtain member income and value-added service fees with platform content. The core is user loyalty and content richness. The tracking indicators are the number of content and member subscriptions. Compared with other content platforms, we believe that the course content provided by keep is more professional, tidy and efficient, the coach screening standard is higher, and the number of users of fitness crowd is higher. For xiaohongshu, BiliBili and other content platforms, fitness content, as a part of the overall ecology, also attracts some users. 2) Mode 2: take the app brand as the endorsement to form a binding with the platform course, cut into the e-commerce sales, and can track the sales volume, sales structure and other key indicators. The main advantage lies in the intelligent fitness equipment and fitness household appliances bound with the course. 3) Mode 3: the o2o realization mode extends from the family scene to the urban scene, enhances the brand influence, widens the realization channels, and optimizes the “asset light” mode of the gym, which is expected to realize the rapid expansion of stores. 4) Mode 4: advertising realization is the general realization mode of platform companies. The larger the number of users and the higher the quality of users, the higher the advertising value. Compared with the comprehensive platform, the vertical platform currently has a smaller number of users.
In the trend of intelligence, the combination of the content of online fitness platform and intelligent equipment, and the control of user data will make it have advantages in intelligent fitness equipment. It can be seen from the sales mode of keep that the more competitive products at present are intelligent fitness equipment such as smart bike. The online fitness platform can better realize the combination of content and equipment, equipment and users by binding with its own course content and user data, so as to help users build fitness plans scientifically, which is expected to gain advantages under the trend of intelligence.
Investment advice
China’s online fitness market is still in the stage of increasing penetration. Under the trend of intelligence, it is expected to form a better user experience combined with smart home fitness equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to keep, the vertical leader in the online fitness industry who submitted the prospectus, and the comprehensive content platforms such as BiliBili and xiaohongshu supplemented by online fitness content.
Risk tips
The growth of platform users is less than expected; The sales of self operated products are less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Affected by the epidemic, the expansion of oto business was less than expected
