Core view
New energy power generation: photovoltaic silicon materials increased slightly, and the number of wind power hours decreased year-on-year
In terms of photovoltaic, from January to February 2022, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 10.86gw, a year-on-year increase of 234%, and the downstream demand was strong. In 2022, the supply and demand of upstream polysilicon materials are still in tight balance, and the price has reached about 240250 yuan. At present, the downstream procurement demand is strong, the silicon materials in the Chinese market are still in short supply, and the short-term silicon material price is expected to continue to strengthen steadily. From January to February 2022, China's component exports reached 25.69gw, doubling year-on-year growth, and the overseas market continued to contribute to the high growth rate of installed capacity. TOPCON is expected to take the lead in large-scale production in 2022, and the cost reduction route of heterojunction is becoming clearer and clearer. Some integrated enterprises are expected to benefit from the lower cost of upstream silicon, and n-type batteries are expected to obtain a technology premium in a certain period of time in the future.
In terms of wind power, the bidding in the wind power industry maintained a high boom in March 2022. According to incomplete statistics, the public bidding capacity reached 15.75gw, with a year-on-year growth, and the annual public bidding capacity is expected to exceed 60GW; The bidding for offshore wind power has been announced one after another, laying a good foundation for the follow-up development of offshore wind power. At present, there are signs of stabilization in the quotation of the whole machine. There is no need to worry too much about the profitability. The price of upstream raw materials remains high and volatile. With the slight rise in the price of parts, relevant enterprises are expected to usher in the subsequent marginal repair of profitability. We insist on optimistic about the prosperity of the whole industry, focusing on land wind machine and tower enterprises with low sensitivity to material price. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal repair of the profitability of leading parts enterprises, and continue to be optimistic about the long-term development space of submarine cable and casting sector.
In terms of green power, renewable energy subsidies are expected to be issued at one time, the cash flow of power generation enterprises has improved significantly, and the investment value of green power sector has ushered in a systematic revaluation.
New energy vehicles and lithium batteries: focus on the tight supply links and the benefit targets of new technologies
The market for new energy vehicles and new energy vehicles continues to be strong in terms of production and sales. We're looking at tight supply and new technology layout. Leading underestimate. Target: 1) 4680 technology benefits: 1) 4680 technology benefits: 4680 technology benefit areas: early laid battery companies ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 's: 1) 4680 technology benefits: early laid battery companies ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) \ ), new lithium salt ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ); 2) Tight supply link: diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ); 3) Consumer battery enterprises with import substitution and smooth price rise: electric tool battery ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and consumer 3C battery ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ).
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality target with low value and high growth in each sector
[photovoltaic] Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) ;
[wind power] Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) ;
[new energy construction and operator] Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ;
The [lithium battery] 's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ;, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) .
Risk warning: policy change risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
