Investment view in April:
The international crude oil price continued to rise and reached a maximum of US $130 / barrel. The factor driving the rise of oil price in the short term is the intensification of geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine, which has aroused the market’s concern about supply side interruption. We are still optimistic that the international oil price will remain at the current high level. Energy reform and long-term deep emission reduction under the background of “double carbon” in the future are the inevitable trend of China’s future economic and social development, which will vigorously promote the rapid development of China’s low emission technology and promote the development of petroleum and chemical industry towards higher quality and more sustainable direction. In addition, the 14th five year development plan for petrochemical industry will accelerate the construction of a modern petroleum and chemical industry system, promote China’s transformation from a large petrochemical country to a powerful Petrochemical country, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the chemical industry to high-end new materials. We are firmly optimistic that benefiting from the major transformation and upgrading of China’s energy structure, China’s chemical industry is in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the upstream material field of new energy has ushered in major development opportunities. We are still optimistic about the sustained high momentum of EVA, iron phosphate lithium iron phosphate, industrial silicon trichlorosilane polycrystalline silicon, PVDF and other new energy chemical products this year. We suggest paying attention to the rebound opportunities of relevant new energy chemical material targets. Recently, the downstream of the potash fertilizer market just needs to pick up. After the signing of the large contract, the State Reserve reopened the auction, and the supply shortage has eased. It is expected that the price of potassium chloride will rise steadily in the short term. At the same time, due to the continuous improvement of the concept of sugar substitutes, the penetration rate of sweeteners represented by sucralose in the field of food and beverage will continue to increase in the future. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term business cycle of sweeteners. The upstream and downstream of the phosphorus chemical industry chain continue to resonate strongly, the short-term spring ploughing will be fully opened, and the demand will develop well. The explosion of demand for lithium iron phosphate will drive the prosperity of “phosphate rock yellow phosphorus phosphate iron phosphate”. Looking forward to April 2022, we focus on the investment direction of trichlorosilane, potassium fertilizer, sweetener and phosphorus chemical industry.
Portfolio of this month:
[ Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) ] photovoltaic drives the price of trichlorosilane to soar, expanding the production of trichlorosilane and adding new material layout;
[ Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ] there is uncertainty in the supply of overseas potash fertilizer, and the company is becoming a world-class potash fertilizer supplier;
[ Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ] with the rise of sugar substitutes, the layout of leading enterprises has accelerated;
[ Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ] the turning point of phosphorus chemical industry has reached, and the electronic chemical business is expected to break out;
[ Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ] the project has entered the harvest period and entered the fast lane of growth;
[ Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) ] “table active + grease” industry double leading set sail.
Risk warning: crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Overseas epidemic recovery is less than expected; Supply contraction caused by device maintenance.
