Event: the real estate policies in Fuzhou, Zhengzhou and other cities were relaxed. In March 2022, Fuzhou began to relax the restriction policy: from now on, it will purchase houses for non five urban registered residence families (including Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan) in five cities of Fuzhou, and do not need to provide medical social insurance or tax certificate or settlement in full 12 months in nearly two years. Then you can purchase an ordinary housing in 144 cities of Fuzhou.
Many places relaxed the purchase and loan restriction policy, and some banks lowered the mortgage interest rate. After the Spring Festival in 2022, under the guidance of urban policies, many places will relax the real estate policy by reducing the qualification requirements for house purchase, reducing the proportion of down payment, relaxing the loan requirements and reducing the housing loan interest rate. Since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have introduced stable real estate policies. 1) Zigong, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou and other places have relaxed the purchase restriction policy of real estate to a certain extent; 2) Wenzhou, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Heze, Nanchong, Dezhou, etc. adjusted the down payment ratio to a minimum of 20% for customers applying for housing loans for the first time; 3) Ningbo, Luzhou, Nanning and other places raised the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund; 4) Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Kunming and other underground mortgage interest rates.
The epidemic will only delay the release of demand, and the stock housing will provide incremental demand. In March, the epidemic broke out in many places across the country, which had a certain impact on the operation, installation and distribution services of home offline stores. However, after reviewing the impact of the epidemic in the past two years, we believe that: 1) the demand for home furnishings is relatively rigid and will not disappear, but will only be delayed. Moreover, under the epidemic, consumers' time at home increases, and the functional and quality requirements of furniture products are improved, which will promote the replacement and upgrading of furniture to a certain extent. 2) In the second half of 2020, the repair speed of the household industry is fast. After the current round of epidemic is controlled, the delayed demand is expected to be released quickly in January February. In addition, from a medium and long-term perspective, the proportion of existing houses continues to increase, and the compound growth rate is expected to reach 10% in the next five years, which strongly supports the steady growth of furniture demand. 3) Under the epidemic, due to the weak anti risk ability of small and medium-sized brands, the liquidation is accelerated, the differentiation between leading enterprises and industries is intensified, and the industry concentration is expected to accelerate
Investment suggestion: there are many early pullbacks in the home sector, and there is sufficient space for valuation and repair. From January 1, 2022 to March 30, 2022, the home sector fell by 18.4%, and the valuations of leading companies were below twice the standard deviation in the past five years. The margin of real estate policy was relaxed, and the valuation of the home sector had great room for repair. In terms of comprehensive performance growth and valuation flexibility, the leading advantage is expanding. The leading strategy of big home is [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] (2022pe only 22x), [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] (2022pe only 19x), and the strategy of management optimization and enhanced growth of the whole family is [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] (2022pe only 12x). Meanwhile, [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] (2022pe only 16x) with rapid development of private brands and accelerated store opening are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with steady performance growth.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, decline in sales area of new houses, disturbance of epidemic situation, rise in raw material prices, etc
