\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
[key points of investment]
The company released its 2021 annual report, which was consistent with the previous performance express. The annual revenue was 6.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 566769 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 109458 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. Single Q4 company achieved a revenue of 1.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company has a loss of 69 million yuan and a profit of 59 million yuan in 2020q4. In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 26.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.5pct, and the gross profit margin of hotel operation / hotel management was + 15.6pct / + 1.6pct to 6.6% / 76.8% respectively. The sales / management / financial expense ratio was 5.2% / 11.5% / 8.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.6pct / – 1.2pct / + 6.8pct respectively. Among them, the financial expense changed greatly, mainly due to the implementation of the new leasing standards and the provision of lease liability interest of RMB 434 million.
Light management hotel drives the rapid expansion of new stores throughout the year. In 2021, there will be a net increase of 1021 hotels and 1418 new stores (YoY + 56%) in the whole year, achieving the goal of 14001600 new stores in the whole year; 188 / 276 / 954 economy / medium and high-end / light management have been opened respectively, of which light management accounts for 67.3%. The expansion of small and medium-sized single hotels in the sinking market is accelerated by the mode of “small investment, high empowerment and fast return”. By the end of 2021, the total number of hotels of the company had reached 5916, and the proportion of franchised hotels had increased to 87.3%. It is planned to open 18002000 new hotels in 2022, and 1791 stores (YoY + 46.9%) will be reserved at the end of 2021, of which light management accounts for 53%, making full preparations for the continued acceleration of store opening in the future.
Under the epidemic situation, the rental rate is still under pressure, and the recovery of house prices is the first. In 2021, the company’s overall RevPAR / ADR / OCC were 119 yuan / 192 yuan / 62% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.2% / + 11.6% / + 4.4pct respectively in 2020, and recovered to 74.8% / 95.8% / 82.7% in 2019 respectively. The house price is better than the recovery of rental rate. Among them, the RevPAR of economical / medium and high-end / light management hotels in 2021 were 104 / 158 / 76 yuan respectively, which recovered to 76% / 69% / 69% in 2019 respectively. The repeated epidemic throughout the year still put pressure on the company’s hotel operation.
Continue to strengthen the construction of members, fine operation, reduce costs and improve efficiency. The company’s membership interests were enriched and upgraded, and launched the “first free global purchase” cross-border platform. At the end of 2021, the total number of members was + 6.4% to 133 million year-on-year, and the proportion of night between central channels was + 4.2pct to 43.0% year-on-year in 2021. The size and contribution of members were effectively improved. With the refinement of management ability, the moving room ratio further decreased. For example, the staffing per 100 rooms of home economy / home business travel decreased from 12.9/14.3 in 2020 to 12.5/13.7 in 2021.
[investment suggestions]
The company accelerated the layout and sinking of the market with light management mode, continued to promote medium and high-end upgrading and asset light transformation, and was optimistic about the improvement of market share and brand strength in the future. Due to the disturbance of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022, we lowered the forecast of the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 7.500/91.10/10.820 billion respectively, RMB 479/11.49/1.425 billion respectively, corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.43/1.02/1.27/share respectively, corresponding PE will be 56 / 23 / 19 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating
[risk tips]
The recovery of the epidemic was not as expected;
The progress of expanding stores is not as expected;
Franchise store management is not as expected.
