\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event overview
The company achieved operating revenue of 106190 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 11.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.34%; Deduct non net profit of 52.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.84%. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 31.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.06%, and the non net profit deducted was 15.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.09%, which was basically in line with the expectation.
Analysis and judgment:
Products maintain the trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price, and the proportion of direct sales increases, driving the increase of ton price
In terms of products, the revenue of Maotai liquor in 21 years was 93.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.18%, the output / sales volume was 56500 / 36300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 12.42% / 5.68%, and the ton price was 2577500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 4.26%; The revenue of series liquor was 12.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.06%, the output / sales volume was 282 / 30200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 13.33% / 1.46%, and the ton price was 417400 tons / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 24.25%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 Maotai Liquor / Series liquor was + 15.34% / + 2.14% year-on-year respectively. Benefiting from the price increase of series liquor, the ton price of series liquor has increased significantly, and the overall product still maintains the trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price. In terms of channels, the direct sales / distribution revenue in the past 21 years was 24.029/82.30 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.49% / + 0.55% respectively, and the proportion of direct sales revenue was + 8.69pct to 22.66% year-on-year; The sales volume of direct selling / distribution is 57 / 60700 tons respectively, and the ton price is 41894 / 1351300 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.42% / – 0.41% respectively. Among them, the direct sales / distribution revenue of 21q4 was 9.344/22.183 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 94.38% / – 3.00% respectively. The proportion of direct sales was further increased, driving the increase of ton price.
Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct sales and the basic stability of expense rate, the profitability continues to improve
Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct sales revenue with higher ton price, the gross profit margin of 21q4 / 21fy was 92.37% / 91.54% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.75 / + 0.13pct respectively. 21q4 / 21fy taxes and surcharges accounted for 14.50% / 13.98% of the total operating revenue, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.241 / – 0.19pct; The sales expense ratio of 21q4 / 21fy was 2.51% / 2.50%, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.20 / – 0.10pct, basically the same. It is expected that the management expense rate will increase slightly due to the increase of employee salary, and the management expense rate of 21q4 / 21fy is 9.37% / 7.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.48 / + 0.79pct. The final net interest rate of 21q4 / 21fy was 51.18% / 52.47% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.82 / + 0.30pct respectively, and the profitability continued to improve.
At the end of the year, the sales revenue was 119321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.49%, which was basically the same as the growth rate of operating revenue; Advances received (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) amounted to 14.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.53% and a month on month increase of + 38.90%. It is expected that due to the increase of goods preparation and payment in the Spring Festival of 22 years, advances received as a whole will remain high.
Many reforms were carried out at the same time, and the company entered the fast lane of development in 22 years.
From the perspective of product layout, Maotai treasures were listed on December 29, 2001 to further supplement the vacant price of non-standard products; On January 18, the company released the new product “Maotai 1935”, with an ex factory price of 798 yuan / bottle and a suggested retail price of 1188 yuan / bottle, and supplemented the product line at the price of 1000 yuan. The layout of Maotai product line is becoming more and more complete, and the foundation of sound development can be guaranteed.
From the perspective of channel layout, the launch of the company’s e-commerce platform today further strengthens the ability of data monitoring and volume and price control of the whole link, which will effectively reduce the fluctuation of Maotai’s wholesale price. We expect that in the next 22 years, the company will accelerate the marketing digitization and channel reform, achieve the business target of 22 years, the operating revenue is about + 15% year-on-year, and complete the capital construction investment of 6.969 billion yuan.
After the Spring Festival of 22 years, according to today’s wine price data, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai fell, and the whole box / bulk bottle fell by about 400 yuan / 160 yuan respectively. We believe that the decline in Maotai’s wholesale price, on the one hand, is due to the acceleration of the company’s delivery rhythm and the increase in supply, on the other hand, the end of the Spring Festival peak season + the disturbance of the epidemic in many places across the country, and the terminal demand has decreased. At present, the rating has returned to a relatively rational region, which is conducive to the recovery of Maotai consumer demand and reduce a series of risks caused by overheated speculation in the market. In the 22 year, Moutai will adjust and optimize various marketing elements under the leadership of a reasonable and effective management of the leadership, on the basis of a number of reforms and steady progress, and in a business environment where public opinion risks are significantly eased, and further release the brand potential energy and gradually enter the fast track of development.
Investment advice
Adjusted the profit forecast according to the company’s annual report, we raised the operating revenue of 122.98/138.66 billion yuan from 22 to 23 to 126.89/145.81 billion yuan, and increased the 24-year revenue forecast of 164.83 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 years was adjusted from 61.669/71.217 billion yuan to 61.10/70.64 billion yuan, and the 24-year profit forecast was increased by 80.33 billion yuan; EPS was adjusted from 42.08/49.09/56.69 yuan to 48.64/56.23/63.95 yuan. The closing price on March 31, 2022 was 1719 yuan, and the corresponding valuations were 35.34/30.57/26.88 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
① the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; ② Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; ③ Food safety issues, etc
