\u3000\u30 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 57 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 67.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.88%, slightly lower than our expectation, which was mainly accrued by the company. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 4.76% calculated according to the closing price of the previous day.
Key investment points
The fist business is affected by the cyclical fluctuations of the industry, and the provision for impairment is light
From the perspective of the company’s branch business in 2021: ① the revenue of crane segment was 36.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.57%; ② The revenue of concrete machinery was 16.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.72%; ③ The income of aerial work platform was 3.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 310.76%; ④ The revenue of earth moving machinery was 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.46%; ⑤ The income of agricultural machinery was 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.92%.
In 2021, the company made a total impairment loss of 749 million yuan, including 1.083 billion yuan of bad debt provision for accounts receivable, 397 million yuan of bad debt provision for long-term accounts receivable and 54 million yuan of bad debt provision for other accounts receivable. The company’s main assets in stock have been fully provided for asset impairment, and the overall risk is controllable.
Optimistic about the diversification + internationalization strategy, is expected to usher in value revaluation
The emerging sectors of the company include high machinery, excavator and new materials of mixed dry mortar, with fast growth and large space. It is expected to become an important growth pole of the company in the future and usher in the opportunity of value revaluation. In 2021, the company’s high-altitude machinery has achieved full coverage of 4-68 meters of product type spectrum, becoming one of the most complete high-altitude equipment manufacturers in China. Overseas sales cover 58 countries and regions on five continents. In 2021, the company’s Excavator revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, far exceeding the industry sales growth rate of 4.5%, and the market share increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s overseas revenue increased by more than 51% year-on-year. In the future, the growth of overseas market is expected to flatten the fluctuation of China’s cycle.
Profitability is under pressure in stages, and we are optimistic about the release of scale effect of new products
In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 24%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.41pct. By product: the gross profit margin of concrete machinery / hoisting machinery / excavation machinery / agricultural machinery is 24.2% / 23.3% / 18.9% / 13.9% respectively; Respectively -2.10 / – 7.73 / + 2.89 / – 2.86 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the rising cost of raw materials and the weakening of scale effect. In the future, with the rapid growth of the company’s emerging sectors such as high machinery and excavator, and the release of scale effect, the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize and improve.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the cyclical fluctuations of the industry, we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 65 (former value 69) / 68 (former value 7) / 7.6 billion yuan respectively, and the current market value corresponds to 8.97/8.53/7.65 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry cycle fluctuation; The intensification of international trade disputes; The development of new business is not as expected
