\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 323 Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 11.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.41%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.73%, which was mainly dragged down by the continuous rise of comprehensive procurement cost of natural gas; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share (including tax).
The solid waste business maintained high growth, and the income of energy business increased rapidly, but the profit was under pressure. Among the subdivisional businesses, the solid waste business maintained a rapid growth trend. A total of 9 waste incineration projects (with a total capacity of 8300 tons / day) were put into operation throughout the year. The scale of waste incineration projects put into operation at the end of 2021 reached 25600 tons / day (excluding the 500 tons / day Changde phase I project under trial operation). The company's excellent project management and control ability also led to the continuous improvement of ton power generation (year-on-year + 1.40% to 384.72 degrees / ton), The rapid ramp up of the production capacity of newly put into operation projects has promoted the company to realize the double increase of waste incineration and on-line power (waste incineration + 48.51% to 9.01 million tons year-on-year, and on-line power + 53.69% to 2.953 billion kwh year-on-year). In addition, the operating income of kitchen / kitchen waste treatment, agricultural waste treatment, industrial hazardous waste and other businesses under the "big solid waste" strategy of the company has increased significantly, driving the operating income of the solid waste sector to + 62.62% to 6.568 billion yuan year-on-year in 2021, and the gross profit margin has decreased by 4.21 PCT to 27.87% year-on-year after the revenue during the PPP construction period with relatively low gross profit margin was recognized.
Driven by the completion of the clean energy transformation project of building ceramics enterprises in Nanhai District, Foshan City, the energy business achieved a significant increase in gas sales. In 2021, the operating revenue increased by + 79.19% to 3.358 billion yuan year-on-year. However, due to the pressure of the continuous rise of international energy prices on the purchase cost of natural gas, the gross profit margin of the energy sector increased by - 12.34 PCT to 5.36% year-on-year. The water supply business has returned to the pre epidemic level and operated stably, with a year-on-year operating revenue of + 7.75% to 984 million yuan. After the operation income of Dali Industrial wastewater pipe network and pump station was added, the operating income of drainage business increased by 36.38% year-on-year to 559 million yuan.
The development strategy of vertical and horizontal integration continues, and the "big solid waste" strategy ensures the long-term growth of performance. The company adheres to the "big solid waste" strategy and actively expands, vertically and continuously expands the environmental sanitation light asset operation projects, horizontally targets the national "waste free city" construction requirements, summarizes and promotes the company's experience in the systematic and resource treatment of various solid waste pollution sources, and successively implements various types of solid waste treatment projects such as industrial solid waste, large waste treatment, kitchen / kitchen waste treatment and agricultural waste treatment, In the future, the above projects will bring effective guarantee to the company's performance growth after they are put into operation.
Maintain the "buy" rating: considering that the company's gas business 2022q1 profit is still under great pressure and the subsequent recovery takes time, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 22-23 years and added a 24-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.528/17.43/1.979 billion in 22-24 years (down 6% / down 3% / new), and the corresponding EPS in 22-24 years will be RMB 1.87/2.14/2.43 respectively, The current share price corresponds to 10 / 9 / 8 times of PE in 22-24 years. Considering that the company's "solid waste incineration" business is expected to maintain a stable growth level after 21 years, and the company's "solid waste incineration" business is expected to maintain a stable growth level.
Risk tip: the total subsidy of the national subsidy increment policy for waste incineration is lower than expected; The project progress of the company is lower than expected; The gross profit margin of the company's water business fell; The profit recovery of gas business was less than expected.
