\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 219 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report on the evening of March 30, realizing a revenue of 28.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 3.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4%.
Comments:
The performance is consistent with the express, and roe has reached a new high since 2008. The net profit attributable to the parent company was consistent with the performance express released in the early stage. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 890 million yuan, down 10% from Q3. The decline in performance was mainly due to the decline in Q4 aluminum price and the rise in power cost. The company's roe (diluted) in 2021 was 7.96%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points year-on-year, the highest since 2008.
The volume and price of products increased simultaneously, and the proportion of high-end products increased significantly. The annual performance growth was due to the rise in product prices and the increase in the proportion of high-end products. 1) Price: the average price of Changjiang nonferrous aluminum in 2021 was 16260 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. The price of the company's aluminum products and the processing fee of some products increased; 2) Large volume of high-end products: the sales volume of high value-added products represented by automobile sector, aviation sector and power battery foil has accounted for 12.7% of the sales volume of aluminum products, with a year-on-year increase of 6.66 percentage points; The gross profit of high-end products accounted for 19.9% of the total gross profit of aluminum products, an increase of 6.62 percentage points year-on-year.
The annual production capacity of automobile sector is expected to increase by 200000 tons to 400000 tons by the end of 2023. The company is the first supplier in China to mass produce automobile sectors, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons in 2021q1; In April 2021, the company's monthly output of automobile sheet products exceeded 10000 tons for the first time, and the annual sales volume exceeded 110000 tons in 2021. In July 2021, the company launched the new 200000 ton automobile lightweight aluminum sector and strip expansion project, with a construction cycle of 18-30 months, which is expected to be put into operation before the end of 2023. At that time, the automobile sector production capacity will double the current 200000 tons to 400000 tons / year. The new capacity of battery foil has been put into operation, and the transformation of production line and the construction of phase II alumina in Indonesia have been carried out smoothly. The company's new 21000 T / a high-performance power battery foil production line has been put into trial production in October 2021, and the production capacity will be gradually released in 2022; The company's Indonesia phase II 1 million T / a alumina project is under construction as planned; The technological transformation of aluminum alloy production line for aerospace and aviation and the transformation of automobile lightweight aluminum sector and strip production line are in progress; The gradual implementation of the above projects will further enhance the company's performance.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic about the gradual volume of follow-up high-end products. Assuming that the aluminum price in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 is 20000 / 19500 / 19500 yuan / ton, and considering the release of automobile sector sales, the company's performance forecast is increased. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 is 4.39/5.32 billion yuan respectively (an increase of 9% / 10%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is 6.47 billion yuan. The PE valuation of the previous share price is 11 / 9 / 7X respectively, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the production capacity release of projects such as automobile board is less than expected; Aluminum price and aluminum oxide price fluctuate sharply.
