\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 23 Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) )
Investment logic
Enter the 100 billion market in the future, and layout hydrogen energy business in the whole industrial chain. Under the dual carbon target, the “3 + 2” pattern of the demonstration urban agglomeration has been formed. According to the current policies and plans issued by all provinces, the number of fuel cell vehicles will exceed 100000 in 2025, and the cumulative market space will be 100 billion; The company extends upstream and downstream of the industrial chain through acquisition and Investment: 1) upstream of the hydrogen industrial chain: after the completion of phase III of Huasheng Chemical, the company’s hydrogen production capacity is about 15600 tons / year, and the revenue contribution of 250 million yuan can be realized in the future; 2) In the middle reaches of the hydrogen industry chain: the company has deeply laid out key areas such as reactors and membrane electrodes by participating in 5.32% equity of Guohong hydrogen energy, the leading enterprise of reactors (ranking first in the cumulative market share from 2018 to 2020), and 19.89% equity of Hongji chuangneng, the leader of membrane electrodes; 3) Downstream of the hydrogen industry chain: Foshan Feichi, the largest holding fuel cell bus enterprise (the cumulative market share from 2018 to 2021 was 11%).
The supply and demand structure of coking industry is relatively loose, and the company deeply cultivates the main business of coal coke. The introduction of the outline of the 14th five year plan for the development of coking industry indicates that under the background of double carbon target and dual control of energy consumption, the supply and demand structure of coking industry is loose and the coke price shows a downward trend for a long time; The company’s coking business accounts for more than 90% of the company’s operating revenue. At present, the company has a coking capacity of 7.15 million tons / year and a coking capacity under construction of 7.3 million tons / year; The company integrates coal and coke, and its coking business performance is better than that of Companies in the same industry; In January 2021, the company raised 1.08 billion yuan privately to devote itself to the deep cultivation of coking business and expand the industrial chain through coking business. At present, the invested project Huasheng Chemical has been put into operation, and the coke production capacity has reached 3.85 million tons / year.
Cooperate with the Institute of coal chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to lay out capacitive carbon technology and promote the process of domestic substitution. At present, the demand for capacitor carbon in China continues to rise, and the localization capacity is insufficient; Under the guidance and promotion of the policy, the company began to cooperate with the coal chemical Institute in 2016. In 2019, the 10 ton capacity carbon production line was completed and put into operation, and the products have been listed in the major science and technology projects of Shanxi Province.
Investment advice and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.85/29.2/3.82 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.67/0.68/0.90 respectively. Considering that the company has broad business growth space in hydrogen energy and has the first mover advantage, it will continue to expand, optimize and upgrade its production capacity in traditional industries, give the company 25 times PE in 2022, and give the “buy” rating corresponding to the target price of RMB 17.00/share.
Risk tips
Meijin group, the major shareholder, has a high equity pledge rate; The development of hydrogen energy industry is less than expected; There is a risk of falling coke prices.
