\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 179 Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, which realized an operating revenue of 12.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.35%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.77%. The profit distribution plan is to distribute a cash dividend of 5.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with the capital reserve.
Comments:
The business quality is improving and the gross profit margin is improved as a whole: from the downstream perspective, the market position of the company’s aerospace business products is continuously improving; The structural adjustment of communication and industrial business has achieved initial results, and the operation quality has been significantly improved; The strategic transformation of new energy vehicle business was accelerated, and the annual order doubled. The annual comprehensive gross profit margin reached 37%, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 1PCT. The gross profit margin of electricity, light and fluid businesses has been comprehensively improved. Among them, the business of optical devices and photoelectric equipment has been increased by 4.7pct, with obvious improvement effect.
The revenue of each quarter is relatively balanced, and the R & D investment continues to increase: the company’s Q1-Q4 has achieved revenue of 3.4 billion, 3.3 billion, 3.2 billion and 3 billion respectively, accounting for 26%, 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. From the perspective of revenue, the company has better realized balanced production. Q4 or due to changes in the structure of delivered products and other reasons, the gross profit margin was 33%, lower than that in the first three quarters; At the same time, Q4 has more expenses on sales, management and R & D, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is also lower than that in the first three quarters. Throughout the year, the R & D expenditure reached 1.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.66%, and the R & D expenditure rate reached 10.15%. The continuous increase in R & D investment may help the company improve its R & D level and market competitiveness.
Orders are in good condition or continue to be maintained, and cash flow has improved significantly: by the end of 21, the company’s inventory increased by 69.41% year-on-year, reflecting the company’s active production preparation; Contract liabilities increased by 246% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of advance payment received by the company, reflecting that the company has sufficient orders and good customer demand. The cash flow from operating activities reached 2.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.74%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in cash received from the company’s sales of goods.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: in order to enhance the company’s competitiveness, the company’s R & D expenses may continue, and the profit level may fluctuate in the process of R & D of new products. The company’s profit forecast for 20222023 is lowered by 7.24% / 9.59% to 2.622 billion yuan / 3.300 billion yuan, and it is predicted that the profit in 2024 will be 4.105 billion yuan, and the EPS in 20222024 will be 2.31, 2.91 and 3.62 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 34x, 27x and 22x respectively. Benefiting from the growth of key national development industries such as national defense equipment, communications, new energy vehicles and rail transit, the company’s revenue scale and profit level are expected to maintain good growth; At the same time, considering the company’s leading industry position and current valuation level, maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of declining market demand under the influence of macro-economy; The risk that the R & D Progress of new and highly reliable products is less than expected; The competition risk brought by the intensified competition in the defense connector market; There is a risk that the market expansion of civil fields such as communication and new energy vehicles is less than expected.
