\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
Event overview. On March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The annual revenue was 4.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.89%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 542 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.85%, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 515 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.15%. The overall performance was within the scope of the company’s previous performance forecast.
21q4 performed well. Revenue and net profit: the company’s 2021q4 revenue was 1.480 billion yuan, an increase of 93.66% and 24.95% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 167 million yuan, an increase of 108.15% and 7.07% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 160 million yuan, an increase of 124.68% and 6.59% respectively. Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was 21.67%, with a decrease of 14.28pct and a ring decrease of 7.74pct. It was mainly affected by the adjustment of freight charges. After recovery, the gross profit margin was basically flat month on month. Net interest rate: the net interest rate of 2021q4 was 11.29%, increased by 0.62pct and decreased by 1.97pct. The company reduced the cost through technology and management, and the net interest rate was basically the same month on month. Expense rate: during 21q4, the expense rate was 6.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7pct, and the impact of freight adjustment was 5.9pct.
The global layout of production capacity creates cost advantages, and lean and high-quality build core barriers. In terms of output value, we expect that the output value of the company in 22 years is expected to double to 9 billion. From the current capacity planning, the long-term output value is expected to exceed 15 billion. At present, the company has nine Chinese bases put into operation, supporting Chinese customers such as catl, AVIC, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) and factories in China such as LG, Samsung and Panasonic. In March 22, the company announced the new Nanchang base. Overseas, the company has set up factories in Germany, Sweden and Hungary, which has the advantages of logistics cost and rapid response. The company has been engaged in mold manufacturing for more than 20 years. It has unique barriers in foreign matter control of aluminum wire and aluminum powder, precision control of stamping and cover sector assembly, product consistency and lean production, and the product yield is higher than that of its peers.
Strong fee control ability + reduced pressure on the cost side to improve profit space. In 21 years, against the background of 33.60% increase in the price of raw material aluminum, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 26.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91pct, mainly due to the transfer of transportation costs within sales expenses into operating costs, and the net profit margin achieved 12.21%, a year-on-year increase of 3.28pct, demonstrating the company’s strong cost and expense control ability. If the aluminum price drops gradually from 22q2 and the customer price transmission effect appears, we expect the profitability of the company to be further improved.
4680 brings new increment of structural members. The manufacturing threshold of 4680 structural parts is high, the difficulty of accuracy control is increased, and the climbing time of yield rate is long. The company has the production experience of consumer cylindrical battery, and has the advantages of technical precipitation, customer certification and high yield rate. At present, the certification progress at the customer is leading. The energy density and safety of 4680 large cylinders have been significantly improved, and the future trend is determined, which is expected to provide new requirements for structural parts.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.047 billion, 1.677 billion and 2.232 billion in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 93.4%, 60.1% and 33.1%. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 34, 21 and 16 times respectively. Considering the rapid expansion of the company’s production capacity, excellent management ability and the first mover advantage in the 4680 round column field, we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
