\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Event: Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) released the annual report for 2021, and the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 3.89 billion yuan, an increase of 18.33% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.28%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 526 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.69%.
The food business grew steadily on the whole. The income of food manufacturing industry was 3.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, accounting for nearly 80% of the company’s income. Among them, as the core business that contributes 40% of the revenue, the revenue of moon cake has achieved a stable growth of about 10% under the high base. As a representative brand of cantonese moon cake, the company has strong consumer awareness and is an important support for the continuous growth of the company’s performance. The revenue of quick freezing business accounted for about 22%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. The growth rate was slightly lower due to the superposition of capacity constraints with a high base in 20 years. The income of other products mainly including pastry, cured meat and zongzi increased by 23.6%, and the income contribution was about 19%. In the past 21 years, the company has invested heavily in the category of zongzi. With the theme of “a generation of zongzi masters”, the Dragon Boat Festival zongzi has comprehensively upgraded its brand image, strengthened IP joint cooperation, and driven the revenue of zongzi to increase significantly year-on-year.
The newly opened stores are merged with taotaoju to help the catering business achieve high growth. The operating revenue of catering business of the company in 2021 was 725 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.32%. During the year, the company opened and reopened 7 stores under the brands of ” Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) ,” taotaoju “and” Xingyue city “. At the same time, it completed the consolidation of 6 stores in Haiyue taotaoju in the third quarter. A total of 13 new stores were added during the reporting period, promoting the high growth of catering business under the condition of low base. In the long run, the company’s “first restaurant in Guangzhou” sign is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the merger of taotaoju is expected to further strengthen the company’s brand image in Guangzhou style catering time-honored brands. The incorporation of new brands and moderate store expansion have laid the foundation for the development of the company after the recovery of the catering industry after the epidemic.
In the future, we will focus on capacity release, channel expansion and the expansion and recovery of catering stores. In terms of production capacity, Meizhou phase I has been officially put into operation, and the company has formed a capacity pattern of complementary cross regional advantageous products based on four bases in Guangzhou, Xiangtan, Maoming and Meizhou. At the same time, the quick-frozen food production project of phase II of Xiangtan base is being designed, which opens up space for the growth of follow-up quick-frozen food. In terms of channel construction, the company has established an online + offline Omni channel marketing system including dealers, chain stores, supermarkets, community group buying and e-commerce. In the past 21 years, while deepening and penetrating the market in Dawan District, the company has opened up channels for supermarkets in central and East China, adding more than 350 dealers. At the same time, online channels made overall plans from the aspects of traffic, platform activity promotion, live delivery and brand IP, and promoted the year-on-year growth of online sales revenue by 40% with the mode of new retail, new consumption and new trend. In terms of catering, the company actively plans new catering outlets in first tier cities and key cities outside Guangdong Province to promote the national layout of the brand. The epidemic affects the level of catering profit margin. At present, the catering industry is still recovering for some time, and there is still a large space for the recovery of profit margin in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company adheres to the development strategy of “strengthening catering brand and creating scale for food”, and establishes a business model of mutual linkage between “food manufacturing” and “catering service”. With the release of production capacity and the promotion of the construction of omni-channel system, the company’s food business is expected to expand and grow, and the catering business is expected to maintain the brand advantage in the long-term recovery trend. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.47/51.7/5.73 billion; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 640 / 800 / 990 million respectively, and the EPS is RMB 1.12 / 1.41 / 1.75 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 19 / 15 / 12 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the release of production capacity is less than expected; Food safety issues; Macroeconomic downturn.
