\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key elements of the report:
The company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 75.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.82%, a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 7.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 5.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.33%.
Key investment points:
Japan’s profit performance is good, with independent and continuous adjustment: in 2021, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) achieved 2.144 million vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, which outperformed the general trend of the industry. Among them, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota sold 780000 and 828000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.2% and 8.2%. The sales performance is ahead of the joint venture brand and the profit is stable. The investment income in associates and joint ventures is about 11.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. GAC sold 324000 passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The profit of independent brands was temporarily under pressure, but the product adjustment achieved initial results. After the listing of the first sports car leopard shadow, the monthly order exceeded 10000, and the annual sales of M6 and M8 were 115000, with a year-on-year increase of 55.9%. The company overcame the impact of chip supply shortage and rising raw material prices, and the annual sales gross profit margin was 7.92%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.45pct. From January to February 2022, the group achieved sales of 381000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and the performance is still strong.
The main models of the joint venture are in short supply, and independent new energy is growing at a high speed: the company’s Japanese joint venture models continue to sell well, the capacity utilization rate is full, and the capacity utilization rate of GAC Toyota is as high as 120.1%. The market performance of Camry’s medium and long-term modification, the fourth generation Highlander, Saina, lingshang and other new or modified models is good, of which Camry’s sales volume exceeds 210000, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, The terminal sales volume ranks first in the segment market of medium and high-end cars; The capacity utilization rate of GAC Honda is as high as 102.2%. It has successively launched the modified version of accord, haoying 2021, Xingge, orside, etc., and the product portfolio has been continuously optimized. The company attaches importance to the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Among them, gac-e’an new energy has grown rapidly since its independent operation, with a sales volume of 120000 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%; From January to February 2022, the sales volume was 25000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 131.3%. In the later stage, with the smooth promotion of the opportunistic listing in the capital market, there is a large growth space.
Prediction and investment suggestions: we expect the company to achieve revenue of 91.42 billion yuan, 105.49 billion yuan and 121.42 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 9.94 billion yuan, 11.87 billion yuan and 14.24 billion yuan, EPS of 0.95 yuan, 1.13 yuan and 1.36 yuan respectively, and PE corresponding to closing price on March 30, 2022 of 11.9 times, 9.9 times and 8.3 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk factors: car sales are less than expected, chip supply is in short supply, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply.
