\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview: on March 30, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021. The annual operating revenue was 75.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.335 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 22.95%.
2021q4 performance exceeded market expectations and profitability continued to improve. In 2021, the company sold 2.14 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.92%, better than the market (industry year-on-year - 1.6%), and the market share increased to 8.16%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.09pct. In 2021, the investment income was 11.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.2%; The loss of self operating business (net profit attributable to parent company - investment income) was 4.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of equity incentive expenses + 750 million yuan. In a single quarter, 2021q4 group achieved a revenue of 20.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.81%, and the profitability improved significantly. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 7.92%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.45pct; In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin was 10.27%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.83/month on month increase of + 2.38pct. Under the background of the increase of raw material cost and the rise of battery price, the margin of gross profit margin improved significantly.
Capacity expansion superimposed on the acceleration of new cars, and the two fields continued to rise. In 2021, guangben / Guangfeng achieved an operating revenue of 114810/129465 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.05% / + 16.89%, and achieved a sales volume of 7803 / 828000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.17% / 8.23%. The single vehicle revenue was 1471 / 156400 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 02 / 11600 yuan. In 2022, Liangtian accelerated its expansion. In terms of production capacity, GAC Toyota new energy vehicle production capacity expansion project phase I and GAC Toyota engine construction project were completed on schedule, and GAC Toyota new energy vehicle production capacity expansion project phase II (200000 vehicles / year) was steadily promoted. In terms of model launch, the strong cycle of Liangtian products has been opened, and Guangfeng's new MPV Saina will go on sale in October 2021, which is expected to become a new "cash cow"; At the beginning of 2022, fenglanda and Weisa were listed successively, of which the cumulative order of fenglanda reached 11000 units; Guangben's new car model went on sale in January and sold nearly 10000 vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, guangben's first Honda brand pure electric e: NP1 and Guangfeng pure electric suvbz4x will be listed one after another this year, and the electric fuel will work together, which is expected to further drive the sales upward.
Independent performance is bright, and the mixed reform of Egypt and Angola is expected to boost the company's valuation. In 2021, GAC's independent sales reached 444400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 25.5%; The single vehicle revenue was 110700 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.66%, of which GAC passenger car / EA achieved a revenue of 52.885/17.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.02% / + 84.27%, and the single vehicle revenue was 163 / 144000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91 / - 13700 yuan. In terms of production capacity, the expansion of production capacity in ai'an was completed in February, and the production capacity is expected to reach 200000 / 400000 vehicles in 2022 / 2023. In March, ai'an announced an increase of 4 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan in the official guidance price of many of its models, which is expected to absorb the upward pressure of costs. In March 2022, ai'an implemented equity incentive and introduced war investment, raising 2.566 billion yuan, with a post investment valuation of nearly 39 billion yuan. According to the company's guidelines, ai'an will further start the a-round financing and joint-stock restructuring, and actively seek an appropriate opportunity to be listed. The mixed reform stimulates the enthusiasm of employees and is expected to reconstruct the company's valuation system. In 2022, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) plans to launch emkoo, M8 replacement, etc. With the improvement of product matrix, GAC's independent sales volume and profitability are expected to improve steadily.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the independent development of the company this year and the launch cycle of Liangtian products is coming. We raise the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 9.579108.75/12.627 billion respectively, corresponding to 12 / 11 / 9 times of the current share price PE respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
