\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 115 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) )
Events
On March 30, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 67.13 billion yuan / + 14.48%, recovering to 56% of that in 19 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 12.21 billion yuan. Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 14.63 billion yuan / - 10.5%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 4.05 billion yuan, and a loss of 2.73 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Key investment points
Business data: Based on the base camp in Shanghai, ask in China recovered to more than 90% in 19 years. In 2021, ask and RPK of the company increased by + 5.67% and + 1.43% respectively year-on-year, and the seating rate was 67.7%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8pct. Among them, ask and RPK of Q4 company were - 20.0% and - 31.9% respectively year-on-year, and the seating rate was 61.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11pct. Affected by the repeated epidemic, ask and RPK recovered to 59% and 49% in 2019 in 2021, and the passenger occupancy rate recovered to 83% in 2019. Only considering China, in 2021, ask and RPK of the company were 15.82% and 10.81% year-on-year respectively, and the seating rate was 68.33%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1pct. China's ask and RPK recovered to 91% and 75% in 2019. In 2021, the company introduced a total of 33 aircraft around the new main models and withdrew 6 aircraft. With the introduction of a350900, b787-9, a320neo and other new models, the age structure of the company's fleet has always remained young (7.7 years on average)
Revenue side: the revenue per passenger kilometer has exceeded the 19-year level, and the proportion of freight revenue has further increased
In terms of passenger kilometer revenue in 2021, the annual revenue is 0.53 yuan / + 7.9%. In terms of routes, China / international / region are + 12% / + 120% / - 17% respectively. In terms of revenue structure, in 2021, passenger and freight revenue were + 10.1% and 69.7% respectively, accounting for 84% and 9% respectively, and freight revenue increased by more than 100% compared with 19 years.
Cost side: the cost of aviation fuel has increased significantly, and the cost of non oil has remained stable
In 2021, the operating cost of the company increased by 9.83% year-on-year. In terms of spin off, the CIF price of imported kerosene increased by 39% year-on-year, resulting in a significant increase of 49% in the cost of oil, a good control of non oil costs, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in the cost of unit oil withholding. In 2021, the proportion of oil cost / employee salary / depreciation and amortization / landing expenses / others was 26% / 21% / 24% / 13% / 16% respectively, and the proportion of oil cost increased by 5pct. In terms of exchange gains and losses, due to the continuous appreciation of RMB, but the appreciation rate in 21 years was 2.3%, lower than 6.9% in 20 years. The company's net exchange gain in 2021 was 1.619 billion yuan, lower than 2.494 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 90.2 billion yuan, 112.9 billion yuan and 134.3 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, 25% and 19% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 6.2 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan and 10.9 billion yuan respectively. Under the epidemic situation, the recovery trend of the aviation industry remains unchanged in twists and turns. With the slowdown of the supply side growth of the whole industry in 20-22 years, we believe that the market share of the head airlines will further increase, and the strong will always be strong, which will benefit from the recovery cycle of the industry. Give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the oil price rose more than expected, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly
