\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing a revenue of 4.639 billion yuan (+ 47.28% YoY), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.069 billion yuan (+ 48.08% YoY), and deducting a non net profit of 935 million yuan (+ 45.22% YoY); Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the company’s revenue in 2021 increased by 56.13% year-on-year, close to the upper limit of performance forecast.
From January to February of 22 years, the growth was strong, and we joined hands with star capital to accelerate biological drug cdmo. In the early stage, the company disclosed the main operating data from January to February 2022, and the revenue achieved a strong growth of 130% year-on-year. The company expects the revenue of 22q1 to exceed 2 billion yuan (150% year-on-year +), and all business segments except large orders show accelerated growth. In addition, the company plans to reach a cooperation of 2.534 billion yuan with Hillhouse venture capital, so as to meet the capital needs of Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) biological follow-up capital expenditure and operating expenditure, and promote the development of cdmo business in the fields of macromolecules, ADC, cell gene therapy drugs and mRNA drugs.
High growth of orders on hand + release of new production capacity, and sustained high growth of small molecules can be expected. By the end of the first quarter of 2012, the company’s total orders on hand were US $1.898 billion, an increase of 320% over the same period of 21 years. By the end of 2021, the volume of the company’s traditional batch reactor was nearly 4700m3. By the end of the first quarter of 2012, the volume of the traditional batch reactor was 5000m3. According to the company’s plan, the capacity of small molecule traditional batch reactors is planned to increase by 46% by the end of 2022 compared with the end of 2021. The performance elasticity of new capacity is worth looking forward to.
Various emerging businesses accelerated and opened the long-term ceiling. In 2021, the total revenue of the company’s four new businesses was nearly 400 million yuan (+ 67.43% YoY), and 327 emerging service projects were completed; The proportion of emerging business revenue increased from 2.19% in 2018 to 8.57% in 2021. 1) Chemical macromolecules: in 2021, the revenue increased by 42.48% year-on-year, and 14 new customers were developed. The company is focusing on promoting the R & D and capacity construction in the field of oligonucleotide cdmo. 2) Preparation business: achieve rapid and high-quality growth. In 2021, revenue increased by 80.33% year-on-year. More than 40% of orders came from foreign customers such as the United States and South Korea, and 40 API + Preparation projects were undertaken. 3) Clinical cro: after the merger and acquisition of Guanqin pharmaceutical, the integration effect is remarkable. In 2021, the revenue increased by 83.71% year-on-year. 150 + project contracts were signed (70 + were innovative drug projects), and the on-hand orders were 300 million yuan + RMB; In October 21, it acquired 100% equity of yipukono, which enhanced its service capacity in data management and biometrics. 4) Biological macromolecules: by the end of the first quarter of 22, the orders on hand had reached 130 million yuan. It is expected to take the lead in the field of ADC. Shanghai Jinshan has initially formed the capacity of R & D and pilot production. It is expected to complete the capacity construction of 2x2000l disposable bioreactor antibody stock solution and 2x500ladc commercial coupling stock solution in the middle of 22 years, which is expected to open up the service capacity from payload, linker to antibody.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the gradual delivery of large orders of about 9.342 billion yuan and the accelerated development of emerging businesses, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 years to 2.927/2.577 billion yuan (48% / 26% higher than the original forecast respectively), and the new forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company for 24 years to 2.811 billion yuan. According to the latest equity calculation, EPS is 11.07/9.75/10.63 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE is 33 / 38 / 35 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the volume of commercial orders is less than expected; The decline in sales of commercial products led to a decline in the scale of orders.
