\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 15.121 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 1.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.56%.
Comments:
The reduction of railway investment led to the decline of rail transit business and the rapid growth of Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business
The overall performance of the company declined in 2021, mainly due to the decline in new investment in mobile equipment of guotie group, which led to the reduction of the scale of rail transit business. The revenue of this business in 2021 was 12.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.80%. The Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business grew strongly, with a revenue of 2.572 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%. Among them, the power semiconductor and new energy vehicle electric drive benefited from the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry, and achieved revenue of 1.068456 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 33.26% / 171.32% respectively. They are the two Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) sub businesses with the largest proportion.
Taking advantage of new energy, IGBT, silicon carbide, electric drive and other businesses have made continuous breakthroughs
In 2021, the revenue of semiconductor subsidiary is about 1.3 billion yuan, of which IGBT revenue is about 900 million yuan. The company's IGBT is delivered in batches in the field of rail transit and power grid, with the first share in China. At the same time, benefiting from the rapid development of the overall field of new energy, the number of IGBT devices delivered by the company in the field of new energy vehicles and new energy power generation increased significantly throughout the year. In the middle of 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 3.52 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 1.6 times, and it is expected to remain in a rapid growth channel in the next few years. Relying on IGBT phase I and phase II production line and silicon carbide industrial base, IGBT, silicon carbide devices, electric drive system and other businesses will continue to benefit from the long-term national strategy of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the downturn of rail transit business, we expect the revenue of 22-23 years to be 16.185/18.107 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 17.159/19.272 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 2.1502299 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 2.626/2.966 billion yuan), and the profit forecast for 24 years to be 19.857 billion yuan, the net profit to be 2.460 billion yuan, the EPS to be 1.52/1.62/1.74 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE to be 36 / 34 / 32 times respectively. Taking into account the company's long-term competitive advantage in power semiconductors, about 45 times PE is given to the 2022 profit forecast, and the target price is 68.43 yuan, which is raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The downstream demand of rail transit continues to be depressed, the IGBT capacity construction is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
