\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: on March 31, the company released its annual report for 2021, with a total revenue of 109464 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 11.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.34%. The year-on-year net profit was RMB 52.81 billion, with a year-on-year net deduction of RMB 1.185 billion. Meet expectations.
Key investment points:
The company ended successfully in 2021 and its profitability continued to improve. (1) The growth of performance mainly benefited from the growth of sales volume and ton price. Maotai liquor achieved a revenue of 93.464 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 10.18%, a sales volume of 36300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.68%, and a ton price of 2577500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 4.26%; In the past 21 years, the revenue of series liquor reached 12.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.06%, the sales volume was 30200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 1.46%, and the price per ton of liquor was 417400 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 24.26%. (2) By channel, direct sales revenue accounted for 22.66%, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.49%, and the ton price was 4.1894 million yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.42%, driving the overall ton price upward. (3) The gross profit margin of the company was 91.54% and the net profit margin was 52.47%, basically the same as last year.
The production of base liquor increased. In 2021, the output of Maotai base liquor was 56500 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4%; 28200 tons of series wine, a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%; The production of base liquor accelerated significantly, which laid the foundation for the later performance growth.
The pace of market-oriented reform is firm and sends a positive signal. The new management of the company is determined to forge ahead and accelerate market-oriented reform. There is an expectation of price increase during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The company will continue to recover channel profits with high certainty. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it will continue to develop direct channels, including self-supporting, e-commerce, supermarkets and enterprise group purchase.
Profit forecast: the company has predicted that the revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2022 will achieve high double-digit growth and make a good start. It is expected to achieve high growth in the whole year of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 62.4/74.2/85.4 billion yuan respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 17.7%. Taking into account the future flying volume, the incremental contribution of new Maotai 1935 and rare Maotai, and the tilt of Maotai to self-supporting channels, driving the increase of ton price, we give the company 45 times PE in 2022 and raise the rating and buy rating corresponding to the target price of 2235 yuan.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the risk, the channel structure adjustment is less than the expected risk, and the price increase is expected to fail
